Alert archive / Alabama / Flash Flood Watches in 2015
Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Mobile, AL
NWS Mobile, AL issued this flash flood watch at Oct 31, 2015, 4:13 AM CDT for 12 counties in Alabama; Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida; 5 counties in Mississippi. It took effect at Oct 31, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 39 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 31, 2015, 4:13 AM CDT (09:13 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 31, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Nov 2, 2015, 9:00 AM CST
- In force
- 39 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Mobile, AL
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Baldwin County, AL, Butler County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Perry County, MS, Stone County, MS, Wayne County, MS
The radar
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1167 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 86 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 91 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
263 WGUS64 KMOB 310913 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MAINLY WEST OF I-65 FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ADVANCING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY WEST OF I-65 FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MOSTLY WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINING AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 5 INCHES WEST OF I-65 WITH AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF I-65. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DOUBLE THESE VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. ALZ051>053-055-261>263-265-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-311715- /O.NEW.KMOB.FF.A.0009.151101T0000Z-151102T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-MONROE-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND- MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...HOMEWOOD... MONROEVILLE...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...MOBILE...THEODORE... GRAND BAY...DAUPHIN ISLAND...BAYOU LA BATRE...WAYNESBORO... RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN... WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 413 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN ALABAMA...BALDWIN ... INLAND...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...MOBILE CENTRAL...MOBILE COASTAL... MOBILE INLAND...MONROE AND WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. * FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
9 follow-up statements
759 WGUS64 KMOB 311817 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 117 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MAINLY WEST OF I-65 FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY ADVANCING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY WEST OF I- 65 FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MOSTLY WEST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WEST OF I-65...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF I-65. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DOUBLE THESE VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. ALZ051>053-055-261>263-265-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-010300- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.151101T0000Z-151102T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-MONROE-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND- MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...HOMEWOOD... MONROEVILLE...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...MOBILE...THEODORE... GRAND BAY...DAUPHIN ISLAND...BAYOU LA BATRE...WAYNESBORO... RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN... WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 117 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN ALABAMA...BALDWIN ...INLAND...CHOCTAW...CLARKE... MOBILE CENTRAL...MOBILE COASTAL...MOBILE INLAND...MONROE AND WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE... PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. * FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
829 WGUS64 KMOB 312036 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 336 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MAINLY WEST OF I-65 FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. ALZ054-010500- /O.EXA.KMOB.FF.A.0009.151101T0000Z-151102T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WILCOX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...PINE HILL 336 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS EXPANDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING WILCOX. * FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAINS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD EASILY SEE THESE AMOUNTS DOUBLED. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ ALZ051>053-055-261>263-265-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-010500- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.151101T0000Z-151102T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-MONROE-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND- MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...HOMEWOOD... MONROEVILLE...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...MOBILE...THEODORE... GRAND BAY...DAUPHIN ISLAND...BAYOU LA BATRE...WAYNESBORO... RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN... WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 336 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN ALABAMA...BALDWIN ...INLAND...CHOCTAW...CLARKE... MOBILE CENTRAL...MOBILE COASTAL...MOBILE INLAND...MONROE AND WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE... PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. * FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAINS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD EASILY SEE THESE AMOUNTS DOUBLED. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
533 WGUS64 KMOB 010505 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1205 AM CDT SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MAINLY WEST OF I-65 FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. ALZ051>055-261>263-265-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-011315- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-MOBILE INLAND- BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE- STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... MOBILE...THEODORE...GRAND BAY...DAUPHIN ISLAND...BAYOU LA BATRE... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 1205 AM CDT SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN ALABAMA...BALDWIN ...INLAND...CHOCTAW...CLARKE... MOBILE CENTRAL...MOBILE COASTAL...MOBILE INLAND...MONROE... WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. * THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON * STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAINS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD EASILY SEE THESE AMOUNTS DOUBLED. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
084 WGUS64 KMOB 011021 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 421 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MAINLY WEST OF I-65 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. ALZ051>055-261>263-265-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-011830- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-MOBILE INLAND- BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE- STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... MOBILE...THEODORE...GRAND BAY...DAUPHIN ISLAND...BAYOU LA BATRE... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 421 AM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN ALABAMA...BALDWIN ...INLAND...CHOCTAW...CLARKE... MOBILE CENTRAL...MOBILE COASTAL...MOBILE INLAND...MONROE... WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. * THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON * STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAINS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD EASILY SEE DOUBLE THESE AMOUNTS. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
556 WGUS64 KMOB 012209 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 409 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 9 AM CST MONDAY MORNING... .STORM TOTAL RAINS SINCE SATURDAY HAVE RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW AREAS HAVE SEEN NEAR 4 INCHES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND TONIGHT TAPS ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINS AND EMBEDDED STORMS FORECAST TONIGHT...A SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD IN SPACE AND TIME THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY. ALZ056>060-264-266-FLZ201>206-020600- /O.EXB.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-BALDWIN CENTRAL- BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-ESCAMBIA COASTAL- SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND- OKALOOSA COASTAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE... BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...DAPHNE... FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...GULF SHORES...CENTURY... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...ENSLEY...JAY...MILTON...GULF BREEZE... CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN... SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 409 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS EXPANDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN ALABAMA...BALDWIN ... CENTRAL...BALDWIN COASTAL...BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON... CRENSHAW AND ESCAMBIA. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...ESCAMBIA COASTAL...ESCAMBIA INLAND...OKALOOSA COASTAL...OKALOOSA INLAND...SANTA ROSA COASTAL AND SANTA ROSA INLAND. * THROUGH MONDAY MORNING * STORM TOTAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAS OCCURRED OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ ALZ051>055-261>263-265-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-020600- /O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-MOBILE INLAND- BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE- STONE-GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE... MOBILE...THEODORE...GRAND BAY...DAUPHIN ISLAND...BAYOU LA BATRE... WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE... MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE 409 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN ALABAMA...BALDWIN ...INLAND...CHOCTAW...CLARKE... MOBILE CENTRAL...MOBILE COASTAL...MOBILE INLAND...MONROE... WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. * THROUGH MONDAY MORNING * STORM TOTAL RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAS OCCURRED OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
793 WGUS64 KMOB 020245 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 845 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 9 AM CST MONDAY MORNING... .STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY HAS RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW AREAS HAVE SEEN AROUND 4 INCHES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. MSZ067-075-076-078-079-020345- /O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 845 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THE HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. $$ ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-021100- /O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL- BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND- ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL- OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM... MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN... PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE... LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP... SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...MOBILE...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE... FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...GRAND BAY...DAUPHIN ISLAND... BAYOU LA BATRE...GULF SHORES...CENTURY...MOLINO...PENSACOLA... ENSLEY...JAY...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT... FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... VALPARAISO 845 PM CST SUN NOV 1 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN ALABAMA...BALDWIN ...CENTRAL...BALDWIN COASTAL... BALDWIN INLAND...BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH... COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MOBILE CENTRAL...MOBILE COASTAL...MOBILE INLAND...MONROE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...ESCAMBIA COASTAL...ESCAMBIA INLAND... OKALOOSA COASTAL...OKALOOSA INLAND...SANTA ROSA COASTAL AND SANTA ROSA INLAND. * THROUGH MONDAY MORNING * STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAS OCCURRED OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
711 WGUS64 KMOB 020943 AAA FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 343 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND ALL AREAS IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH NOON TODAY... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCATIONS WILL COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE BY THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALZ051>055-261>266-021045- /O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-MOBILE INLAND- BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL- BALDWIN COASTAL- 343 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. $$ ALZ056>060-FLZ201>206-021745- /O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-ESCAMBIA INLAND- ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL- OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...LUVERNE... BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...ANDALUSIA...OPP...CENTURY... MOLINO...PENSACOLA...ENSLEY...JAY...MILTON...GULF BREEZE... CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN... SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO 343 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN SOUTH ...CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUTLER... CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW AND ESCAMBIA. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...ESCAMBIA COASTAL...ESCAMBIA INLAND...OKALOOSA COASTAL...OKALOOSA INLAND...SANTA ROSA COASTAL AND SANTA ROSA INLAND. * UNTIL NOON CST TODAY * ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
125 WGUS64 KMOB 021216 FFAMOB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 616 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR OKALOOSA COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING... .AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IS CONTINUING TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL NOW IMPACT JUST COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND OKALOOSA COUNTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE UNTIL MOVING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOIL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ALZ056>059-FLZ201>204-021330- /O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA INLAND-ESCAMBIA COASTAL- SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL- 616 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR THIS PORTION...ALTHOUGH NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. $$ ALZ060-FLZ205-206-021500- /O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ COVINGTON-OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDALUSIA...OPP...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT... FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB... VALPARAISO 616 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN SOUTH ...CENTRAL ALABAMA... COVINGTON. IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA COASTAL AND OKALOOSA INLAND. * UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING * ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME ON SATURATED SOIL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. * EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
742 WGUS64 KMOB 021504 FFAMOB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 904 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED... .THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. ALZ060-FLZ205-206-021615- /O.EXP.KMOB.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-151102T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ COVINGTON-OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL- 904 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COVINGTON AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Oct 30, 11:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 30, 11:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... 06Z ISSUANCE...EXPECTING CLOUDS TO THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASES AFTER SUNSET. RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER 00Z, PERHAPS A BIT LATER AT PNS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 05/RR && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/ INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO PUT A DAMPER ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT FESTIVITIES. RAINS TO BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...STARTING OFF WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PIVOTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WAS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE DIFLUENT FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROF AND ALONG WITH A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE COMING UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. FOR TONIGHT...NO RAIN EXPECTED AS THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST. FORECASTERS ARE CALLING FOR MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO THICKEN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTERIOR TO THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER TEXAS WILL BE HEADING IN THIS DIRECTION BY SATURDAY. UPPER TROF PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK (~100 TO 120 KNOTS) LIFTING UP ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE JET STREAK. AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SLOWLY EAST OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A TRAILING SURFACE WARM FRONT EASING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (2.25 TO 2.4 INCHES) POOLING ACROSS AND OVER THE WARM FRONT IS VERY NEAR AN ASTOUNDING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE AND TRANSPORT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LARGER SCALE ASCENT...ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EPISODE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SPREADING EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE CLOSE OF THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY KEEPS THIS POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 70S. /10 SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST OVER THE PLAINS) MOVES OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE MS/AL GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKS EAST TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DEFLECTS IT NORTHEAST. THIS DEFLECTION OCCURS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND HELPS TO DISORGANIZE THE SYSTEM. FOR THE FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE STILL PAINTING A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM AS GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER...BUT WITH THE DEFLECTION...THE BAND GETS SHUNTED NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES. FOR US...THE HEAVIEST RAIN STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA (NORTHWEST OF I65). WE ARE HOLDING OFF A BIT LONGER IN ISSUING ANY FFA...WANTING MORE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/AMOUNTS...BUT FEEL IF NEEDED A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WITH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SAT/12Z - MONDAY/12Z OF 3" WITH THE CURRENT PACKAGE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS MIXING IN CAN POTENTIALLY DOUBLE THAT LOCALLY. FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...A TRAILING FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING MAINLY A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE AREA BEFORE IT STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DRIER AIR...THE TEMP RANGE OPENS...AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80S EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY AROUND 60. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW BECOMES QUICKLY RE- ESTABLISHED THROUGH MID WEEK...BUMPING MOISTURE LEVELS UP. TEMPS INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. FOR POPS...A PASSING SHORTWAVE SYSTEM BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN MID WEEK...BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT EXPECT RAIN UNTIL THE COMING WEEKEND. MARINE...A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH A BUILD IN SEAS WHERE FORECASTERS WILL HEADLINE FOR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE AS WELL...ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL PASSAGE SLIPPING SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. /10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 30, 3:51 PM CDT, 12 hours 22 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 351 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-312100- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL- BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND- ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL- OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 351 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A MODERATE RISK RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. CONSIDERING THIS...ALONG WITH ENHANCED LIFT...ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THIS RANGE SETTING UP ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME AREAS THAT SEE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD EASILY SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOWER LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE DURING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. GIVEN THE HEAVIER RAINS THAT FELL EARLY THIS WEEK...SOIL CONDITIONS OVER MANY AREAS REMAIN MOIST. AS A RESULT...THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ON LATER FORECASTS. STAY TUNED. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-312100- NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND- PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 351 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY AND DROPS SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH A BUILD IN SEAS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE AS WELL...ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS. SOME OF THE RAINS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE AT TIMES.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:14 AM CDT | Rip Current Statement | MOB | Baldwin, Mobile | 61 hr |
| Oct 31, 5:04 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MOB | Choctaw | 31 min |
| Oct 31, 5:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Choctaw, Clarke | 52 min |
| Oct 31, 5:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Washington | 1 min |
| Oct 31, 5:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Choctaw, Washington | 47 min |
| Oct 31, 5:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Washington | 44 min |
| Oct 31, 6:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Choctaw, Clarke | 35 min |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Washington | 49 min |
| Oct 31, 6:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Mobile | 48 min |
| Oct 31, 4:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Wayne | 25 min |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Greene, Perry, Wayne | 49 min |
| Oct 31, 4:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | George, Greene, Perry, Stone | 38 min |
| Oct 31, 4:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MOB | Wayne | 37 min |
| Oct 31, 5:58 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MOB | Greene, Perry, Wayne | 3 hr |
| Oct 31, 6:31 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MOB | George | 44 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Alabama, 2015Flash Flood Watches in Mississippi, 2015Flash Flood Watches in Florida, 2015Every flash flood watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.