Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

063 
WWUS42 KMLB 081500
WSWMLB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015


FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-081600-
/O.EXP.KMLB.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150108T1500Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...ORLANDO...
SANFORD...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...OKEECHOBEE...DAYTONA BEACH...
CLERMONT
1000 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

IT WILL REMAIN COLD HOWEVER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND.

$$

KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...

TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS MORNING MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY DESPITE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S VOLUSIA/LAKE
COUNTIES...UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND LOW-MID 70S
FARTHER SOUTH.

BREEZY WINDS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT WHEN
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS RAPIDLY AS LARGE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/EASTERN US.

TONIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN ERNEST OVERNIGHT
AS NORTH -NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT. VOLUSIA
AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTS MAY BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT.

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AND FURTHER
REFINEMENT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR 12Z GUIDANCE. ACTUAL FREEZING
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR UNLIKELY AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND
CHILLS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
THIS MORNING FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR
THIS MORNING.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPS...GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE COLDER OF ALL THE 00Z MOS GUIDANCE AND DOES BRING MIN TEMPS
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING INTO NRN LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. HOWEVER
SINCE MOS GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO COLD FOR THESE
ADVECTIVE EVENTS WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE "WARMER" NAM/ECMWF
KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS AREA. THIS MAINTAINS A LOW TEMP
FORECAST FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS LAKE/INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH INLAND AND VOLUSIA COAST TO
MID/UPPER 40S BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST...EXCEPT LOW 50S ALONG
MARTIN COUNTY. GUSTY WINDS  ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS THE 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
VOLUSIA COUNTY AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING N-NW WINDS AFTER 23Z
BECOMING SUSTAINED 15-20KTS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE ALONG VOLUSIA/BREVARD COAST THROUGH THURS MORN. STRONGER
WINDS OVER LOCAL ATLC. WIND VEER MORE N-NE LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY
ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU INTO COASTAL AREAS BY THURS MORN.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH BRIEF NW WIND SURGE BEHIND IT BRINGING WINDS UP TO
15-20KTS AT BUOY 41009 THIS MORNING. EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN
SPEEDS ONCE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 15KTS. WINDS RAMP UP RAPIDLY FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH BEGINS INFLUENCING THE REGION WITH 25-30KTS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET AND 20-25KTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF THE TREASURE COAST. SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 6-9FT NEARSHORE AND 11-13FT OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MIN RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AND OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VOLUSIA-
     LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE.

AM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&

MOSES/KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
533 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-072300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
533 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
RAPIDLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY COASTLINE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH PAST
MIDNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA TONIGHT.

.EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A STRONG FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST BUT NORTH WINDS 15
TO 20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST OF I-4 TO UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR VOLUSIA
COUNTY AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE HAZARD OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY. RIP CURRENT HAZARDS WILL
BE PRESENT MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 12 FEET AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN
THE GULF STREAM.

A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH ROUGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION OCCURRING AROUND HIGH
TIDE LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AS THEY
BECOME MORE ONSHORE INTO LATE WEEK BUT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WEITLICH