Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...
THERE IS NOT A LOT TO ADD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.  A
RATHER ANOMALOUS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE BUT THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AVERAGE DEEP MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE IS HIGHER TO OUR NORTH AND THE FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL DROP SLOWLY THROUGH GEORGIA...SO AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN
HALF WILL SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED BY SOME SHOWERS SPREADING WELL INLAND
FROM THE GULF.

THE EARLY MORNING HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOWED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FORMING OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND ZIPPING EAST/SOUTHEAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR NORTH.  WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME CELLS
COULD CLIP OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OR SEND DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT GENERATES NEW CONVECTION.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY AS WEST
COAST BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BOUNDARY.

THE CURRENT AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL
WITH 925 MB WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.
THEREFORE...CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE PARTICULARLY AWARE OF THIS.

AN OVERALL SCATTERED COVERAGE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES IN THE NORTH...SO NOT PLANNING MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRE FRONTAL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND IS PROBABLY
ALREADY INDICATED BY SOME MORNING MVFR STRATUS THERE. EVEN THOUGH
THE EARLY MORNING MESOSCALE MODELS DID NOT PROJECT GULF SHOWERS TO
SPREAD INLAND...SOME ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. WITH THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...
WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...(NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
TODAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS DROPPED BACK ACROSS SOUTH FL SO
THERE WILL BE A STRONGER OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO
15 KNOTS. IN ADDITION TO PRODUCING SOME CHOPPY SEAS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC...THE FASTER STORM MOTION WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS THEY CROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ONTO THE NEARSHORE ATLC.
BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A COUPLE/FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
THIS AFTN.

TONIGHT...EXPECT A CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD WATERS FOR 15-20 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND PRES GRAD TIGHTENS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1124 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-072200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1124 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SQUALLS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG...CONTAINING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN THESE
STRONGER STORMS BUT FASTER STORM MOTION TODAY WILL LIMIT RESIDENCE
TIME OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. REMEMBER TO ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED SQUALLS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  A RATHER
COMPREHENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY MODEL SIMULATIONS AND
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED IN THE
OPEN ATLANTIC. BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AS THIS ACTIVITY CROSSES THE COASTLINE AND MOVES SEAWARD.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
AN OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...CAUSING STORMS TO MOVE FROM THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

LASCODY/KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1138 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

FLZ045-053-071645-
OSCEOLA FL-ORANGE FL-
1138 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1137 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LAKE HART...OR NEAR NARCOOSSEE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORLANDO...WEDGEFIELD...EAST LAKE TOHO...NARCOOSSEE AND CHRISTMAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2857 8096 2854 8094 2853 8094 2853 8093
      2848 8089 2839 8089 2838 8088 2819 8087
      2823 8128 2838 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 260DEG 16KT 2836 8121

SEDLOCK