Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOME DRIER AIR HAS
CREEPED INTO THE REGION BEHIND A VORT MAX THAT HAD PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE GFS DID NOT QUITE SHOW THE EXTENT OF THIS DRYING. THERE WAS
LIKELY A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
HOWEVER...THIS WAS COMING AT THE EXPENSE OF QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS.  THE SLIGHT DRYING AND LINGERING CLOUDINESS SHOULD ACT
TO DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTION.  THIS IS WHAT THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
WERE SHOWING.  HOWEVER...ONCE LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS GET
GOING...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ONCE AGAIN.  THE HRRR AND WRF LIKE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE GREATEST
COVERAGE...BUT THINK THAT THE EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION WILL
GENERATE THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR.  HAVE MADE
MINOR POP AND WEATHER GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
TRENDS...THINKING THAT SCATTERED POPS WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...THOUGH NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING.
BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO TS 17-20Z ALONG COAST EXCEPT 18Z-21Z DAB.
LATER ONSET FOR INTERIOR AERODROMES WITH HIGHEST PROBS 20Z-24Z.
LINGERING DEBRIS RA AND A FEW TS RUMBLES POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THESE WINDOWS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO WIND/SEA CONCERNS AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE WATERS PRODUCES A LIGHT-GENTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BREEZE.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOULD BE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1125 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-062200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1125 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DATA FROM THIS MORNINGS WEATHER BALLOON SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS SO THIS WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION. BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. STORM CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY AND THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO EARLY EVENING.

STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10
MPH. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO
DIME OR PENNY SIZE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD.

MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY IF SKIES LOOK THREATENING...AND IF THUNDER
ROARS HEAD INDOORS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
TODAYS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS ABOVE
34 KNOTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES ON INLAND LAKES...AS WELL AS THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. BOATERS SHOULD WATCH FOR STORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TODAY.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST
FROM JUST AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
TIDAL EFFECTS. TO LESSEN YOUR CHANCE FOR BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD...AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK...BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FROM
ABOUT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES
MORE EASTERLY AND THE LOCAL AIR MASS BECOMES DRIER. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY/CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
233 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

FLZ044-061900-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-
233 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

AT 232 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE VILLAGES...NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LADY LAKE...EMERALDA...THE VILLAGES AND FRUITLAND PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8182 2878 8190 2878 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 005DEG 9KT 2891 8199

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

FLZ041-044-062015-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-
325 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND WEST
CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 323 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PITTMAN...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAISLEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAISLEY...DELEON SPRINGS...PITTMAN...UMATILLA AND LAKE DORR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2915 8136 2893 8135 2895 8168 2896 8168
      2896 8166 2905 8166 2905 8164 2918 8164
      2919 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 268DEG 11KT 2907 8159

KELLY