Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED AND WAS
PUSHING INLAND WELL PAST INTERSTATE 95 AND SHOULD REACH WELL WEST
OF INTERSTATE 4/LAKE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND IT TRIGGERED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT THE COAST AND 20 TO 40 POP WELL INLAND. THE CURRENT 20
POP COASTAL AND 30 POP INTERIOR FOR THIS EVENING LOOKS GOOD. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE CLOUD COVER LOWS IN THE MID
70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

SUNDAY... DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS PULLING MOIST AIR
MASS NORTHWARD WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH
300MB. GFS TIME CROSS SECTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWING WEAK
VALUES FOR BOTH THE OMEGA AND VORTICITY FIELD. CURRENT 20 POP
COASTAL WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE PUSHED WEST OF AND A 30 POP
FOR THE INTERIOR LOOKS GOOD DUE TO EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INTERIOR
SHOULD REACH THE LOW 90S BEFORE ANY SEA BREEZES REACH INLAND AND THE
UPPER 80S AT THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSHED WEST OF THE
AREA LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...STORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR LINGER WELL PAST
SUNSET AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE SLOW TO WIND DOWN IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN SLOW LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. SURFACE RIDGE MOVES LITTLE AS IT REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. OUTSIDE OF DAILY LOW LEVEL WIND
PATTERN/SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND MOVING INLAND WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
...LIFTING OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CTRL PENINSULA WITH LGT SWRLY
STEERING FLOW SUN BECOME A VERY LIGHT/CHAOTIC SRLY DRIFT MON-TUE.
POPS REMAIN 50 COAST/60 NORTH/INLAND DROPPING BY 10 PCT ON TUE.
TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO...MAXES 89-90F ALONG THE COAST AND L90S
INLAND...MINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 75F.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

WED-FRI...THE TUTT LOW WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE XTD PORTION OF
FRI'S DISCUSSION WILL START OFF LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDING FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS. THIS IN TURN IS PROGGED TO SHUNT THE TUTT LOW TOWARD
THE WSW AND INTO THE FL STRAITS WHILST DEFORMING IT. WE WILL STILL
BE LOOKING AT A WARMING/DRYING TREND WITH POPS LOWERING COURTESY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.

BY SAT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND
TOWARD THE WRN ATLC. THIS ERODES THE MEAN RIDGE OVER FL...LEADING TO
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SERN CONUS. INCREASING SWRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGHER MEAN MOISTURE
SAGGING INTO THE PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPELL AN
INCREASING TREND IN POPS...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT THIS FAR OUT (DAY 7-8)
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 05/04Z AREAS OF MVFR KMCO WEST VCTS THEN VFR.

OVERNIGHT-MONDAY MORNING...VFR TIL 05/16Z THEN MVFR COASTAL AS SEA
BREEZES FORM AND PUSH INLAND. COASTAL SITES KCOF SOUTH OVC VFR
05/18Z-05/04Z. AWAY FROM THE COAST...VFR TIL 05/20Z THEN AREAS MVFR
VCTS 05/20Z-06/02Z...BKN-OVC VFR 06/02Z-06/06Z THEN SCT VFR.

&&

.MARINE... TONIGHT-WED NIGHT...SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL REST IN A
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTH/SOUTHERN
WATERS RESPECTIVELY. SEA BREEZES START BY LATE MORNING/NOON SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL AND BY MID AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE CAPE.

THU...SURFACE/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND EAST SOUTHEAST NORTH
OF THE CAPE. DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW RESULTS IN SEA BREEZES FORMING
AND COMING ASHORE BY NOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  74  90 /  20  60  20  60
MCO  75  94  75  93 /  30  60  20  60
MLB  75  89  76  89 /  20  50  20  60
VRB  75  90  74  91 /  20  50  20  50
LEE  77  94  76  93 /  30  60  20  60
SFB  75  94  75  93 /  30  60  20  60
ORL  76  93  76  92 /  30  60  20  60
FPR  74  90  73  91 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1110 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-042200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1110 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY FORMED LATE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE...AND WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH STORM MOTION TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. STORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR AND MERGES WITH THE EAST
COAST BREEZE TOWARD EVENING. THESE LATE DAY STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE
TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MERGE AND INTERACT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BOATERS ARE URGED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY FOR
APPROACHING WEATHER AND TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR BEFORE THE STORMS ARE IN
YOUR AREA.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TO
PRODUCE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.
THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST AFTER 1:30 PM DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS.
ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFFSHORE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE
REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

KELLY/BRAGAW

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