Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA'S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-302300-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WESTERLY MID LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO MOVE EAST
FROM THE INTERIOR TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG NEAR
THE COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS APPROACHING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. BOATERS ARE
URGED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKIES FOR APPROACHING WEATHER
AND TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR BEFORE THE STORMS ARE IN YOUR AREA.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS INTO MID
WEEK. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

VOLKMER/WIMMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
652 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FLZ053-302345-
OSCEOLA FL-
652 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM EDT...

AT 649 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF LAKE KISSIMMEE...MOVING EASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS.

WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE KISSIMMEE...LAKE MARIAN...FOREVER FLORIDA AND KENANSVILLE.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT MOTORISTS ON THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND
CANOE CREEK ROAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE KISSIMMEE OR LAKE MARIAN...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2795 8134 2807 8131 2808 8093 2775 8104
      2783 8122 2785 8124 2785 8126 2787 8130
      2789 8130 2790 8131 2792 8131 2794 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 287DEG 12KT 2796 8125

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
724 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FLZ047-053-010015-
OSCEOLA FL-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-
724 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREVARD AND EAST
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 723 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KENANSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENANSVILLE...WESTERN PALM BAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2782 8075 2782 8081 2786 8100 2808 8093
      2808 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 276DEG 6KT 2796 8093

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
742 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FLZ047-053-054-058-059-010045-
OSCEOLA FL-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-
INDIAN RIVER FL-
742 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN
OSCEOLA...WESTERN INDIAN RIVER...NORTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND
NORTHWESTERN SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 738 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN IMMINENT COLLISION
BETWEEN A LARGE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS THAT FORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...SEBASTIAN...FELLSMERE AND MALABAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORMS END.

IF ON OR NEAR BLUE CYPRESS LAKE OR THE STICK MARSH...GET OUT OF THE
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THIS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY DEVELOP WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN
PARKS... ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE
DANGERS OF LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2778 8042 2778 8043 2777 8043 2777 8044
      2748 8056 2751 8079 2762 8107 2786 8100
      2781 8075 2808 8071 2808 8060 2794 8053
      2794 8051 2795 8051 2798 8053 2799 8052
      2808 8058 2808 8056 2780 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 265DEG 48KT 2805 8059 2776 8067 2758 8074

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
847 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FLZ054-058-059-010145-
OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-INDIAN RIVER FL-
847 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 845 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BLUE CYPRESS LAKE TO FORT DRUM
TO BASINGER...AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKEECHOBEE...BASINGER AND FORT DRUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2717 8088 2717 8091 2719 8091 2722 8095
      2723 8099 2730 8100 2730 8103 2736 8103
      2738 8107 2739 8112 2742 8114 2744 8114
      2748 8118 2769 8067 2741 8038 2720 8077
      2721 8079 2720 8083 2714 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 254DEG 16KT 2761 8063 2741 8110

CRISTALDI

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