Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM TAMPA HAS KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFT AS
IT HAS SPREAD EASTWARD. HRRR MODEL STILL INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
END WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO LATE AFT AND
SUNSET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
OCCUR ALONG THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
ANY PRECIP WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE
AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG
MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE THE
DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER GUIDANCE WITH
POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THU-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A
POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE
TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET
DUE TO THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

SAT-MON...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING NEAR
TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO LOW END
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...STORM COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. MAY STILL SEE ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
TOWARD THE COAST INTO LATE AFT/EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY WITH BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS FROM KVRB-KSUA. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL DIMINISH
AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA.

ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO
WLY COMPONENT WITH A LIMITED SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING
OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  93  74  93 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  95  75  94 /  10  40  20  50
MLB  73  92  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
VRB  72  93  75  92 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  75  94  76  94 /  10  40  20  40
SFB  74  95  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
ORL  75  95  77  94 /  10  40  20  50
FPR  71  93  74  92 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-302300-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WESTERLY MID LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED STORMS TO MOVE EAST
FROM THE INTERIOR TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG NEAR
THE COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS APPROACHING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. BOATERS ARE
URGED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKIES FOR APPROACHING WEATHER
AND TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR BEFORE THE STORMS ARE IN YOUR AREA.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS INTO MID
WEEK. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

VOLKMER/WIMMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
652 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FLZ053-302345-
OSCEOLA FL-
652 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM EDT...

AT 649 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND EAST OF LAKE KISSIMMEE...MOVING EASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS.

WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE KISSIMMEE...LAKE MARIAN...FOREVER FLORIDA AND KENANSVILLE.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT MOTORISTS ON THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND
CANOE CREEK ROAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE KISSIMMEE OR LAKE MARIAN...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2795 8134 2807 8131 2808 8093 2775 8104
      2783 8122 2785 8124 2785 8126 2787 8130
      2789 8130 2790 8131 2792 8131 2794 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 287DEG 12KT 2796 8125

CRISTALDI