Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
246 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THRU TONIGHT...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM COVERAGE SHOULD BE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
GUSTY WINDS. LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALOFT MEANS MUCH OF TODAYS
ACTIVITY WILL BE BOUNDARY DRIVEN...AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WILL
WATCH FOR STORM PROPAGATION BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS
EVENING. WARM AND HUMID EVENING AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH AND WEST FLOW CONTINUING. MODELLING
INDICATES A SLIGHT DROP OFF IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
KEEPS POPS A BIT LOWER. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZES INTERACT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION
MEANS TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...THE ATLC RIDGE LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AS ALLOW
STRONGER LOW LVL SE WINDS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INTO INTERIOR
SECTIONS WITH SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES AROUND 20 PCT ACROSS THE CSTL
ZONES TO 30 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR...LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S TREASURE COAST TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

TUE...LOW LVL SE FLOW CONTINUES TUE WITH 594 DM RIDGE AT H5
ELONGATING NORTH OF THE STATE. DIFFUSE EAST COAST BRZ SHOULD PUSH
INLAND WILL KEEP 20 PCT ALONG THE COAST AND 30-40 PCT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE NRN
INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTN INCLUDING LAKE COUNTY. HIGHS AROUND 90
COAST TO LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

WED-SAT...ON WED 500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES NORTH OF THE AREA WED WITH
DEEP LAYER SE FLOW. EAST COAST SEA BRZ MOVING INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WILL FCST POPS AROUND 20 PCT ALONG THE COAST AND 30-40 PCT FOR THE
INTERIOR. THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN STARTING THU
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG S/W MOVES ACROSS THE GRT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND BRINGS A L/W TROUGH ALOFT TO THE ERN STATES.
SHOULD SEE LOW LVL WINDS START TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY THU WITH MID LYR
FLOW FROM THE WEST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOCUSING SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY SAT. APPEARS DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS GA AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND MOVING TWD THE EAST COAST IN THE
LATE AFTN. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS BLEND AND MOS FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
POPS EDGE UP SOME AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS FCST FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COASTAL COUNTIES AND LOWER TO MID 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MAY PROPAGATE BACK
TO COASTAL SITES (KDAB/KTIX/KMLB) THIS EVENING. GENERALLY VFR AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
AFTER SUNSET. MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE NORTH OF THE
CAPE...SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE
INTRACOASTAL...AND ARE REMINDED THAT GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM A PARENT THUNDERSTORM. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
INDICATED BY LOCAL MODELS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUN-WED...SE-S WINDS EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK WITH A STRONGER SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION TO 10-15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MAINLAND...BUT THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS MAINLY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
DAB 20-JUN  98 1990
MCO 20-JUN  99 1998
MLB 20-JUN  99 1998
VRB 20-JUN  97 2004

DAB 21-JUN  98 1944
MCO 21-JUN  99 1944
MLB 21-JUN  98 1998
VRB 21-JUN  98 2009

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  94  75  93 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  75  96  75  95 /  30  30  30  30
MLB  74  91  75  92 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  75  92  73  91 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  76  96  77  95 /  30  30  30  30
SFB  75  96  76  95 /  30  30  30  30
ORL  76  96  77  95 /  30  30  30  30
FPR  73  92  73  91 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

FORECAST...ULRICH
RADAR/AVIATION...CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-202200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND ACROSS
OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...WHERE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

LINGERING DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH...MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR...WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. ADDITIONAL STORM
THREATS INCLUDE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AVERAGE FLORIDA HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.
STAY WELL HYDRATED AND TAKE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN AIR CONDITIONING
IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE A LOW TO MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY OVER INLAND COUNTIES. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES CONTINUING TO REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

WEITLICH/CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
442 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

FLZ053-202145-
OSCEOLA FL-
442 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 439 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN IMMINENT COLLISION OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM PINE GROVE
SOUTH TO SAINT CLOUD...HARMONY TO LAKE KISSIMMEE. THESE STORMS WILL
BE NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAINT CLOUD...EAST LAKE TOHO...NARCOOSSEE...LAKE KISSIMMEE AND AUSTIN
TINDALL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2803 8141 2801 8138 2804 8136 2807 8137
      2807 8135 2808 8135 2809 8139 2835 8130
      2835 8099 2779 8120 2784 8123 2786 8130
      2792 8131 2794 8135 2795 8134 2798 8138
      2800 8139 2800 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 244DEG 2KT 2821 8120

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
459 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

FLZ147-202145-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-
459 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING OUTFLOW FROM A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE COAST. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ARRIVE WELL
BEFORE ANY RAIN OR LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TITUSVILLE...ROCKLEDGE...COCOA...COCOA BEACH AND CAPE CANAVERAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2834 8061 2834 8063 2858 8060 2834 8066
      2835 8067 2838 8072 2850 8074 2834 8072
      2834 8086 2861 8096 2865 8083 2865 8081
      2850 8073 2859 8072 2859 8066 2866 8078
      2867 8065 2869 8066 2846 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 271DEG 15KT 2855 8092

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
546 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

FLZ044-045-202230-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-ORANGE FL-
546 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MOUNT PLYMOUTH. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
APOPKA...EUSTIS...MOUNT DORA...CASSIA AND PAISLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8171 2896 8166 2905 8166 2906 8164
      2913 8164 2903 8140 2899 8137 2898 8135
      2894 8135 2885 8138 2882 8142 2874 8142
      2871 8144 2871 8146 2868 8146 2871 8166
      2878 8166 2878 8169 2894 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 289DEG 3KT 2883 8152

KELLY

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