Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED E-W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PNSLA THIS AFTERNOON PROMOTING A PREVAILING FLOW SE-S SOUTH OF
THE AXIS AND S-SW NORTH OF THE AXIS. FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK SO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL TEND TO COLLECT INLAND
SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND COCOA...AND OVER THE INTERIOR BACK TOWARD THE
COAST NORTH OF THERE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4. MOVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO A RELAXED STEERING FLOW RELYING LARGELY ON PROPAGATION
AND THE THERMAL CIRCULATION DRIVING THE SEA/LAKE BREEZES. A
MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS NORTH OF A TAMPA TO
CAPE CANAVERAL LINE.

STORMS WILL LINGER MOST IN THE ALREADY IDENTIFIED AREAS AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN. THE TREASURE COAST WILL
BE LARGELY SPARED OF EVENING ACTIVITY BUT WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THU-FRI...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL RECEIVE SOME INITIAL SOUTWARD
BUMPING BY LOW-LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO ITS NORTH TO BEGIN AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE LOCAL FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A MODEST BREAK DOWN IN UPPER RIDGING. AMPLE PWATS
WILL MAINTAIN ENHANCED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR TREASURE
COAST. MAV POP GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT NORTH (MORE
WET) TO SOUTH (LESS WET) FOR THIS PERIOD. A DAMPENED VERSION OF
THIS SENTIMENT IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

.SAT-TUE...SFC RIDGE WILL BE FULLY SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS A FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES INTO DIXIE. CENTRAL FL WILL BECOME AWASH IN SW FLOW
AND FOCUS CONVECTION TOWARD THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PNSLA FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS LIKELY TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...ESP CLOSER TO
THE COAST...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS BUT WEAKENS AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
REPLACED WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE. THIS SHOULD DIAL
BACK THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING AND ALLOW THE LOCAL BREEZES TO
ACQUIRE A LITTLE BETTER INLAND PENETRATION. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERAL TEMPO 2420/2424 3SM TSRA BKN020CB FOR SITES
KMCO/KISM NORTHWARD BECOMING VFR BUT WITH CEILINGS AOB BKN100-120.

&&

.MARINE...

THU-SUN...(FROM PREVIOUS) THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH FL BY THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
INCREASED W/SW FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS...ESP CAPE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT WELL OFFSHORE SAT-SUN REMAINING
2-3 FT NEARSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  75  90 /  40  50  40  40
MCO  74  93  74  93 /  40  50  30  50
MLB  74  91  75  91 /  30  30  20  50
VRB  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  20  40
LEE  77  92  77  92 /  30  50  30  50
SFB  76  92  76  92 /  40  50  30  50
ORL  76  92  76  93 /  40  50  30  50
FPR  73  92  72  92 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

IMPACT WX/AVIATION...TS
FORECAST GRIDS.......DS