Small Craft Advisory for Winds 9, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING SINCE THE
AFTN HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FAST MOVING CONVECTION ALONG WITH SOME
SEVERE HAIL...WIND AND EVEN A WATERSPOUT OCCURRENCE...ALL ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

CURRENT ACTIVITY ASCD WITH A SECONDARY PASSING WAVE HAS WEAKENED
ALONG WITH AN OBSERVED DECREASE IN LIGHTNING AFTER HAVING MOVED
ASHORE THE GULF COAST AT DUSK. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OF TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN
HOURS WHILE CONSIDERING THE INCRSG UPR WINDS AND RELATIVELY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT SHOULD COMMENCE FOR ECFL AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC FORCING ASCD WITH
APCH OF A STRONG JET JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INCREASES RAIN AND
THUNDER CHCS MARKEDLY. EVOLUTION TOWARD A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE WITH APCH OF THE JET MAXIMA WL FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SEVERE DOWNBURST
WINDS AND HAIL.

AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS REALISTIC TO IMPACT THE ECFL
AREA ROUGHLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PERSONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. CAUTION STATEMENTS IN PLACE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FOR THE INCRSD GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST
MOVING...SOME WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

JP/PG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-280900-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA
COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
840 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH DOWN THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THEY PASS. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE
SIZE OF COINS. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP INFORMED
OF THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

A RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A LONG
PERIOD SWELL IMPACTS THE EAST FLORIDA COAST.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS FRESHEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

GLITTO

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