Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Melbourne, FL

438 
WWUS52 KMLB 240019
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
819 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

FLC127-240028-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150824T0045Z/
VOLUSIA FL-
819 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2905 8164 2912 8164 2911 8151 2910 8150
      2910 8147 2896 8152 2904 8166 2905 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 343DEG 15KT 2903 8164 

$$

FLC069-240045-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150824T0045Z/
LAKE FL-
819 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 818 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER PITTMAN...OR NEAR PAISLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAISLEY...ALEXANDER SPRINGS...SELLERS LAKE AND LAKE KATHRYN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...
SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 2905 8164 2912 8164 2911 8151 2910 8150
      2910 8147 2896 8152 2904 8166 2905 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 343DEG 15KT 2903 8164 

$$

KELLY

624 
WWUS52 KMLB 240028
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
828 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

FLC069-240037-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150824T0045Z/
LAKE FL-
828 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...GUSTY 
NORTH WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER 
UMATILLA...EUSTIS...TAVARES AND MOUNT DORA.  

LAT...LON 2905 8164 2912 8164 2911 8151 2910 8150
      2910 8147 2896 8152 2904 8166 2905 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 297DEG 12KT 2902 8161 

$$

KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
246 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE RESPONDS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING AND THE WINDS BECOMING CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE REMAIN LIGHT BUT GO FROM ONSHORE VERO BEACH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST NORTH OF ORLANDO WITH A LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL ORLANDO
NORTH. ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF LOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED
FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO MODEL RUNS...00Z AND 06Z...THE 12Z GFS MAV/MOS
POP GUIDANCE REMAINS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. THE NAM MET/MOS GUIDANCE
ON THE OTHER HAND IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT POP
OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE RADAR TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LATE
AFTERNOON STORMS/SHOWERS TO WARRANT A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO THE
FORECAST LIKE SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA AND NOT MOVING MUCH WEST OR EAST. THE
SURFACE RESPONDS BY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TO NEW ENGLAND. LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG ENOUGH MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS(VORTICITY) ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
TRACKING OVERHEAD TO TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
NORTH/ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND LINGERING UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN THE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WED-SAT...UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS INTO THE EXTENDED BUT DOES BEGIN
TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. THE GFS BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON THU INTO SAT BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT TO
THE NORTH EITHER MOVING FURTHER SOUTH/DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. FOR
NOW WITH THE SWRLY STORM MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BELIEVE HIGH END
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPROPRIATE FOR ALMOST EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH THE EASTERN PENINSULA HAVING GREATEST CHANCES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. COOLER AIR ALOFT (500MB/-7C TO -8C) IS FORECAST. SOME
SORT OF ECSB DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST EACH DAY BUT INLAND MOVEMENT
LIKELY SLOWED BY SWRLY FLOW OFF OF THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN
SAT WITH BROKEN BANDS OF SHRA/TS INLAND FROM DAB-TIX...VRB-SUA...AND
A FEW ISOLD CELLS WEST OF COF-MLB. WHILE THE DAB-SUA CORRIDOR WILL BE
FREE OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...LOOKING FOR SFB-MCO
TO BECOMING ACTIVE 19Z-22Z AND LEE-ISM 21Z-24Z. +TSRA WITH ISOLD
GUSTS UP TO 30KT OUT OF THE NNE-NE.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS DROPPING TO 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-3
FEET EXCEPT 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE AND PERIODS LOWERING TO 5-6 SECONDS
WILL PRODUCE MORE CHOP THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY.

MON-THU...SURFACE TROUGHING MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DISPLACES
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH MONDAY. DEVELOPING LOW ON THE
TROUGHING PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE MORE TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY WHERE
IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  93 /  20  30  30  20
MCO  75  93  75  93 /  10  30  30  20
MLB  76  91  76  92 /  10  20  30  30
VRB  73  91  75  92 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  75  93  76  93 /  20  30  20  20
SFB  75  93  76  93 /  10  40  30  20
ORL  75  93  77  93 /  10  30  30  20
FPR  73  91  74  92 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC FORECASTS....WIMMER
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1115 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-232200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1115 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
OF TWO WILL FORM ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST. SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...THE SAINT
JOHNS RIVER AND INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

A FEW STORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW INLAND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 TO
40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST ON MONDAY...WHICH WOULD KEEP STORM
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL. BY MIDWEEK A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WILL CAUSE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND MOISTENING...
WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM COVERAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

LASCODY/CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
730 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

FLZ041-044-144-240015-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY FL-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-
730 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 728 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LEESBURG THAT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEESBURG...LAKE GEORGE...AND PIERSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8166 2905 8166 2906 8164
      2928 8164 2932 8168 2938 8145 2940 8142
      2926 8142 2926 8134 2916 8128 2893 8151
      2869 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 329DEG 6KT 2880 8192

WEITLICH