Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Melbourne, FL

531 
WWUS52 KMLB 151915
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

FLC093-151923-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-150815T1915Z/
OKEECHOBEE FL-
315 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS 
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH 
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. 

LAT...LON 2736 8090 2749 8073 2740 8068 2728 8068
      2722 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 153DEG 8KT 2733 8075 

$$

KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
249 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH LATE AFT/SUNSET. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SOUTHWEST MID-
UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS OR AREAS OF
RAINFALL FROM DECAYING CONVECTION TO REACH BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN INLAND. RAIN CHANCES END BY
MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD WHERE
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY TRANSPORT ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT. SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

SUN-TUE...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE ATLC MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ERN GOMEX EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY NORTH OF FLORIDA THEN
SAGGING BACK SWD OVER THE NRN AND THEN CTRL PENINSULA. THIS FAVORS
THE PATTERN OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHCS OVER THE NORTH AND INTERIOR
(50-70 PERCENT) VS THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPS FAVOR CLIMO AS WELL WITH MAXES IN THE U80S IMMEDIATE COAST
TO 90/L90S INLAND AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE M70S WITH A FEW U70S
ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

WED-FRI...GFS/ECM IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREV RUNS...HOLDING THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH AN H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR OR OVER FL. THIS KEEPS THE SFC/LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXES IN PLACE
OVER THE CTRL PENINSULA AS WELL...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEAN
MOISTURE PROFILE. THIS WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE EARLY
WEEK REGIME OF NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGHEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL EXIST OVER THE
INTERIOR ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND WITH
ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNSET. THEN EXPECTING
DIMINISHING CONVECTION INTO LATE EVENING.

ISO-SCT ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
KMLB-KSUA OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. ISO-SCT
STORMS EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT
IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW.

SUN-WED...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE WEEK. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE BREEZE ENHANCED EACH AFTN
BY THE LCL ONSHORE SEA BREEZE CIRC. SEAS MAINLY 2-3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  75  88 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  75  91  75  91 /  40  60  30  60
MLB  76  89  77  89 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  74  90  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  40  70  30  60
SFB  74  90  74  91 /  30  60  20  60
ORL  75  90  75  91 /  40  60  30  60
FPR  75  89  75  88 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...WEITLICH
AVIATION...JOHNSON
RADAR/IMPACT WX...KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1128 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-160000-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
1128 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL PUSH INLAND
SPARKING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WITHIN A MOIST
AND RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP FIRST ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THEN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TYPICAL FOR AUGUST...THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME WILL PRODUCE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF SOME ROADS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER INLAND
LAKES AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BECOME SCATTERED IN COVERAGE MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL REMAIN AN AFTERNOON HAZARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY/WIMMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
232 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

FLZ058-059-064-151915-
MARTIN FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-
232 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
NORTHWESTERN MARTIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR J AND S FISH CAMP...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY DUE TO BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TREASURE ISLAND...OKEECHOBEE...TAYLOR CREEK...FOUR SEASONS ESTATES
AND COUNTRY HILLS ESTATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2716 8071 2721 8079 2720 8083 2718 8085
      2755 8096 2748 8070 2734 8050 2714 8052
      2711 8067
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 153DEG 8KT 2718 8065

KELLY