Lake Wind Advisory 11, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
800 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STOUT LOW LEVEL E/NE FLOW WITH 925MB
WINDS AROUND 20-25KTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MARINE
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO
THE COAST...BUT EVEN INTERIOR AREAS COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S. ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

TONIGHT-WED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) NEXT H24 WILL FEATURE
CONTINUED STOUT ONSHORE WINDS WITH SFC/LOW LEVELS VEERING FROM NE
TO ENE- EAST. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP ATLC MOISTURE WITH
MODEL SOUNDING DATA INDICATING THAT THE LOCAL AIR MASS WILL
WARM/MOISTEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SOME SPITS AND SPRINKLES
SPREADING INLAND. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE (SCT/30 PCT)
OVER THE ATLC AND NEAR THE COAST WITH SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
INLAND. INLAND MINS IN THE U50S TO AROUND 60F...U60S TO AROUND 70F
AT THE COAST. MAXES IN THE U70S ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.

WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10FT AT 41009 WED...
WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD FOR HIGH SURF ADVISORY. WE'RE ALSO
ENTERING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AROUND TOMORROW NIGHT'S FULL MOON...WHICH
YIELDS PREDICTED VALUES OF 5.2FT ABOVE MLLW AT TRDF1. HOWEVER LOCAL
TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 0.6-0.8FT ABOVE PREDICTIONS...WHICH
WOULD YIELD A PEAK VALUE PRETTY CLOSE TO 6FT THERE...ALSO NEAR LOCAL
THRESHOLD. CONTINGENT UPON SEAS REACHING FORECASTED VALUES...THERE
SEEMS TO BE A PRETTY SOLID CHANCE THAT MID SHIFT MAY NEED GO WITH
CFW/HIGH SURF ADV ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. ANY ISO ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VIS. BETTER CHANCE FOR TEMPO MVFR CONDS
WED ALONG THE COAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SHOWERS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SLIGHTLY.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE WITH E/NE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS.

WED-SUN...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE COVERAGE WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTY FROM THE NE/E AND
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 8-12 FT GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE. THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST

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