Lake Wind Advisory 1, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS START FRI THEN WORSEN INTO SAT...

TONIGHT-FRI...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE INDICATED WITH FORMING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
FLORIDA ON FRI. THE MODELS LOOK TO BE BRINGING MAIN PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND INTO NORTHERN AREAS FRI NIGHT. BUT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN LATE AFTERNOON FRI
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MEAGER
AND WITH INCREASING WIND PROFILES WE SHOULD BE DEALING WITH LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR POINTS TO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS POSSIBLY ROTATING THOUGH.

PRESENTLY THERE IS A SMALL ATLANTIC BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF BAHAMA BANK...AND WITH ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING...
WILL CONTINUE A SMALL COASTAL POP TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN FROM
THE CAPE NORTH LATER.

POPS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FRI FORECAST...WHICH SHOW 60 PERCENT FAR
NORTH AND 40 PERCENT CENTRAL...STILL LOOK GOOD. HAVE DECREASED
VALUES FOR THE SOUTH THIRD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 12Z GFS MOS.

THOUGH WE EXPECT A DECENT CLOUD DECK TO FORM DURING DAYTIME
HEATING FRI...WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT GUSTINESS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY STILL BE MET.

FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...
THE 12Z GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE
FROM THE NORTH FLORIDA FRI EVENING TO COASTAL CAROLINA/OUTER BANKS
EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
CENTRAL PRESSURES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RIBBON WITH EACH MODEL
NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT.

WINDS INCREASE LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO
NORTH FLORIDA THEN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS...40 TO 50 KNOTS..JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN RESULTING
IN STRONG GUSTS IN/NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALTHOUGH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE MOVING OVERHEAD THE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SUCH AS VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA...BUT POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE HIGH WITH THIS FRONT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY EVENING.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT DIMINISH LATE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AS THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.

SUN-WED...
COOL AND DRY W-NW FLOW SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. NEXT COOL FRONT APPROACHES QUICKLY BY
MONDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MOISTURE RETURN THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND REINFORCE THE COOL DRY ATMOS.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY...WEST OF LEESBURG...WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL VFR STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI
MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LOWER CEILINGS IN A FEW SPOTS
TO AROUND FL025. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
MAINLY KVRB NORTHWARD TO KTIX THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN UP TO KDAB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRI WILL
DEEPEN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EXISTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY LATE AND NORTHWARD FROM KISM-KMCO-KTIX. EXPECT
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...WE WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING MODE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
BRINGING WINDS TO 20 KNOTS...OR A LITTLE GREATER...IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS FRI MORNING SO HAVE STARTED AN ADVISORY THERE. IT WILL
TAKE SEAS A WHILE TO RESPOND TO 5-7 FEET...BUT WILL JUST GO WITH A
STRAIGHT ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO WORSEN THROUGH THE
DAY AND BEYOND...SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A GALE WATCH FROM AROUND 1AM SATURDAY
TO 4 PM SATURDAY FROM THE FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE
MARINE ZONES AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET THE SAME TIME FRAME.

SUN-TUE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON WILL
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS...WITH AN ADVISORY LIKELY OFFSHORE AGAIN ON
MON. WINDS DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE BUT
SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  78  59  66 /  20  50  80  70
MCO  62  80  62  68 /  10  40  70  70
MLB  66  80  66  73 /  20  20  50  70
VRB  65  81  70  79 /  20  20  20  70
LEE  63  77  61  65 /  10  60  90  70
SFB  62  79  64  71 /  10  50  80  70
ORL  63  79  61  66 /  10  50  80  70
FPR  65  81  69  78 /  10  20  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER

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