Alert archive / Florida / High Surf Advisories in 2015
High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this high surf advisory at Oct 3, 2015, 4:18 AM EDT for Volusia County, Florida. It took effect at Oct 3, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 42 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 3, 2015, 4:18 AM EDT (08:18 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 3, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 5, 2015, 4:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 42 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
County Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 798 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -22 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 629 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 2.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
660 WHUS42 KMLB 030818 CFWMLB COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 418 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...LARGE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE THIS WEEKEND... FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-050800- /O.NEW.KMLB.CF.Y.0002.151003T1400Z-151005T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.151003T1400Z-151005T0800Z/ SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN- COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- 418 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY. * WAVES AND SURF...LARGE BUILDING SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SURF ZONE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND. THE SWELLS WILL CREATE ROUGH...POUNDING SURF WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 6 TO 7 FEET FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE NUMEROUS STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. * COASTAL FLOODING...WATER RUNUP TO THE DUNE LINE CAN BE EXPECTED. TIDES WILL RUN ABOUT 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE RUNUP COULD BREACH THE DUNE LINE IN A FEW NORMALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS...BUT NOT LIMITED TO...BATHTUB BEACH AND SEWALLS POINT. * TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND 1:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 1:00 AND 1:30 AM SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND 2:00 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BETWEEN 2:00 AND 2:30 AM MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ENTERING THE ROUGH SURF COULD BE DANGEROUS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY TIRE YOU OR KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. WEAK SWIMMERS MAY WANT TO CONSIDER NOT ENTERING THE WATER ABOVE THEIR KNEES. SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT LARGE WAVES AND HIGH TIDES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING...VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE SHORE. && $$
3 follow-up statements
891 WHUS42 KMLB 040118 CFWMLB COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 918 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...LARGE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS...POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE ON SUNDAY... FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-050800- /O.CON.KMLB.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0800Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0800Z/ SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN- COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- 918 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. * WAVES AND SURF...LARGE BUILDING SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SURF ZONE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SWELLS WILL CREATE ROUGH...POUNDING SURF WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE NUMEROUS STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. * COASTAL FLOODING...WATER RUNUP TO THE DUNE LINE CAN BE EXPECTED. TIDES WILL RUN ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RUNUP COULD BREACH THE DUNE LINE IN A FEW NORMALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS...BUT NOT LIMITED TO...BATHTUB BEACH AND SEWALLS POINT. * TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 1230 AM AND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 130 AND 230 PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ENTERING THE ROUGH SURF COULD BE DANGEROUS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY TIRE YOU OR KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT LARGE WAVES AND HIGH TIDES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING...VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE BEACH AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS. && $$ 15
983 WHUS42 KMLB 040846 CFWMLB COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...LARGE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN THE SURF ZONE TODAY... FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-050800- /O.CON.KMLB.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0800Z/ /O.CON.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0800Z/ SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN- COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- 446 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY... * WAVES AND SURF...MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS IN THE SURF ZONE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SWELLS WILL CREATE ROUGH...POUNDING SURF WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET. THERE WILL ALSO BE NUMEROUS STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. * COASTAL FLOODING...WATER RUNUP TO THE DUNE LINE CAN BE EXPECTED. TIDES WILL RUN ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THE RUNUP COULD BREACH THE DUNE LINE IN A FEW NORMALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BATHTUB BEACH AND SEWALLS POINT. * TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDES BETWEEN 130 AND 230 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ENTERING THE ROUGH SURF COULD BE DANGEROUS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES CAN EASILY TIRE YOU OR KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT. SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT LARGE WAVES AND HIGH TIDES MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING...VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE BEACH AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS. && $$ CRISTALDI
421 WHUS42 KMLB 050821 CFWMLB COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 421 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 ...LARGE SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY... FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-060000- /O.EXP.KMLB.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0800Z/ /O.EXP.KMLB.SU.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151005T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KMLB.RP.S.0021.151005T0821Z-151006T0000Z/ SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN- COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- 421 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. * TIMING...THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO A LARGE EAST TO NORTHEAST SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN. * IMPACTS...STRONG LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS... JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL FLAGS AND SIGNS. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY. && $$ ULRICH
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high surf advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high surf advisory went out at Oct 2, 10:00 PM EDT, 6 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 10:00 PM EDT, 6 hours 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...BUILDING SEAS/SURF EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES NORTHWARD...
TONIGHT...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AS A RESULT OF A BOUNDARY
COLLISION FROM PSEUDO-EAST COAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. OR
TO THINK OF IT IN A DIFFERENT WAY...BETWEEN INFLUENCES OF 2 STORM
SYSTEMS...CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER FL PANHANDLE AND MAJOR HURRICANE
JOAQUIN NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE BAND OF CONVECTION IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. SO THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
REACH THE EAST COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. EXPECT THAT THERE
SHOULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AS THEY PUSH AWAY FROM
THE BEST DIVERGENCE (SUPPORT) ALOFT. NONETHELESS...THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE RAINS WILL COTNINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IN SOME SPOTS.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY...DRY NW LOW LVL WINDS ON SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND JOAQUIN FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LOWER
PWATS SUBSTANTIAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP
GENERATED BY THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE MAIN IMPACTS SATURDAY
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH LARGE SWELL SETS FROM HURRICANE
JOAQUIN BRINING HIGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...AND BEACH
EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY EARLY SATURDAY AND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SAT NIGHT...LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY...SECONDARY SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD SC WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE SOME MOISTENING AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT NEAR THE
MID-UPPER LOW ACROSS S GA/N FL WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS SUNDAY ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO
40 PCT. LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BEACHES WITH SWELLS
TO 5-7 FT IN THE SURF ZONE.
EXTENDED...JOAQUIN PULLS FARTHER AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
BEACH/COASTAL AND MARINE CONCERNS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. UPPER
LOW/TROUGH ABLE TO TRANSITION OFF THE SEABOARD WHILE PATTERN
OVERHEAD TEMPORARILY RELINQUISHES AMPLITUDE. THE MODEST AVAILABILITY
OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT MAY NEED TO DIAL POPS BACK A LITTLE MORE. HIGHS LOW TO
MID 80S...WARMING TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...BAND OF SHRA WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL TERMINALS (MLB-SUA)
03Z-06Z. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING WHICH
SHOULD LINGER THRU 14Z BEFORE VFR CONDS RETURN BY 17Z. MAINLY DRY CONDS
EXPECTED SAT WITH WESTERLY FLOW 10-13 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE... MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME HAZARDOUS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LARGE SWELLS MOVE TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS FROM THE OFFSHORE AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES NORTH AND THEN
NE INTO SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
BY SUNDAY WESTERLY WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING
SHOULD DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO LARGE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. EARLY WEEK FORECAST CONTINUES OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LARGE SWELLS
ONLY SLOW DROPPING OFFSHORE TO 6-8 FT BY TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS AROUND 3.0 FT...
WHICH IS 0.2 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY IMPEDE THE NORMAL NORTHWARD FLOW OF THE
RIVER AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 83 65 82 / 20 10 10 40
MCO 67 85 66 83 / 20 10 10 40
MLB 70 85 67 83 / 20 10 10 40
VRB 72 86 66 85 / 20 10 10 40
LEE 65 82 67 82 / 20 10 10 40
SFB 68 84 67 84 / 20 10 10 40
ORL 68 85 68 84 / 20 10 10 40
FPR 70 87 65 85 / 20 10 10 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
&&
KELLY/SEDLOCKHazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 9:35 PM EDT, 6 hours 43 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 935 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141- 144-147-031000- FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY- NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN- COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY- NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- 935 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... A THIN BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND REACH THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTH TO MARTIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAIN TO ACCUMULATE UP TO 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS IN AN HOUR OR SO. .COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT... MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELLS WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION AROUND THE NEXT HIGH TIDE A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT. WAVE RUN UP TO THE DUNES IS EXPECTED AND REPEATED CYCLES OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES MAY CAUSE DUNE BREACHING AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WHERE HIGHER WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH THE LEVEL OF OLDER...LOWER DOCKS AND ENCROACH ON YARDS. .WIND AND SEA IMPACT... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO LARGE SWELLS FROM MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN...AND 5 TO 7 FEET NEARSHORE. .RIVER FLOOD IMPACT... THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS AROUND 3.0 FEET AS OF LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS 0.2 FEET ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY WINDS IMPEDE THE NORMAL NORTHWARD FLOW OF THE RIVER AND MODERATE TO LARGE OCEAN SWELLS IMPACT THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND IMPEDE ITS DISCHARGE INTO THE ATLANTIC. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY...REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES PRODUCING ROUGH POUNDING SURF... BEACH EROSION AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. KELLY
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 4:18 AM EDT | Coastal Flood Advisory | MLB | Volusia | 48 hr |
Nearby
High Surf Advisories in Florida, 2015Every high surf advisory in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.