Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
405 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INVERTED TROUGH
HAS PUSHED NEARSHORE AND HAS VEERED WINDS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THESE SAME AREAS. OVERRUNNING IN COMBINATION
WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH IS PRODUCING MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR.

TODAY...SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO KEEP CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES HIGH. 1) LOCAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY FROM BREVARD NORTHWARD. 2) AN UPPER JET AND
EMBEDDED ENERGY IN STOUT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A BROAD
SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER...LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THESE FEATURES TO WARRANT HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES THERE. 3) CONTINUED OVERRUNNING OF NORTH AND EAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

A MINOR CAVEAT EXISTS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE SHORTER RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IF ENOUGH
HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE. SPC HAS NOTED THIS AREA WITHIN ITS GENERAL
THUNDER CATEGORY FOR DAY 1. THINK THE OVERALL THREAT IS QUITE LOW
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED WITH
TIME AS UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH SLOWLY
ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND. WILL
FORECAST SHOWER CHANCES IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE WITH ACTIVITY
CONCENTRATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AT H5 AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND -11 DEGS C AND
MARGINAL CAPE MAY ALLOW A FOR A STRAY LTG STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
SRN INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTN. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE NE SWELLS
WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST
TO THE LOWER 80S FROM ORLANDO SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE EVENING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIGHT
NE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SOME LATE NIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS SECTIONS.

MONDAY...GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE THE NAM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
BACK DOOR WEAK FRONT AND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES DOWN THE SE ATLC COAST AND WINDS BECOME N-NE IN IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH MEAN LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASING. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST IN THE
LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

TUE-THU...ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC EARLY TUE
ALLOWING FLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE 500 MB MID LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS S
FL WITH SUMMER LIKE 588 DM HEIGHTS REACHING LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST TUE AND INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHOULD SEE
EVEN WARMER READINGS WEDNESDAY AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
80S OVER THE INTERIOR. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THU AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THU NIGHT-SAT...00Z GFS/ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE NEXT FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
QUICK TRANSITION TO NE FLOW AND POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
WITH BREEZY NE WINDS AND ONSHORE MOVING ATLC SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S FOR LATE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYER CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
WEATHER FEATURES WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWER CHANCES HIGH TODAY...SO BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VIS/CIG EXPECTED AS COVERAGE INCREASES. NORTH WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS AND KDAB.
GENERALLY ENE/NE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS ELSEWHERE FROM KTIX SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...INVERTED TROUGH AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. BUILDING SEAS TO 6 - 9
FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY
WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.

TOOK A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY WHICH ALLOWS FOR
MODERATE SE FLOW AND A LINGERING NE SWELL WITH 5-7 FT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO THE N-NE BY AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY VEERING INTO MID WEEK. SHOULD SEE SEAS DIMINISH TO 3-5 FT BY
MONDAY. ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS TO SCEC LEVELS IS EXPECTED
TUE-WED WITH DEVELOPING BREEZY SE/S FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  62  74  58 /  70  40  30  10
MCO  70  63  81  62 /  60  50  40  20
MLB  73  68  80  63 /  60  40  40  10
VRB  75  69  81  63 /  60  40  30  10
LEE  68  60  79  60 /  60  50  30  20
SFB  69  63  79  61 /  70  50  40  10
ORL  69  63  80  62 /  60  50  40  20
FPR  75  70  81  63 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ULRICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
918 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-010100-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
918 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASED MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
PERSISTENT RAINFALL NEAR THE TREASURE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS TODAY. HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
UP TO FOUR INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE PORT ST LUCIE
AREA AS OF MID MORNING...LEADING TO FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW
LYING AREAS. ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT RAINFALL ALONG THE MARTIN AND
ST LUCIE COUNTY COASTS WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE ANY STANDING WATER
AND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES TODAY.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH BUILDING SEAS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES
TODAY. A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE. BEACH
GOERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF HEADING INTO THE COOL AND
CHOPPY SURF AND SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TODAY AND STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WHILE
SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE
INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP BOATING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

ULRICH/GLITTO