Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
450 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER TN/GA WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NW FL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME DRYING ALOFT OCCURRING AS THIS TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. HI
RES IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS PENINSULAR FL. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A MOIST E/SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH FL.

FORCING MECHANISMS IN THE FORM OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTH FL WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH MORE SFC HEATING EXPECTED
THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NORTH...THERE SHOULD BE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE. ONE OR TWO OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AS TEMPS REMAIN COLD ALOFT (-10C AT
500MB).

TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SMALL EVENING POP OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE ATLC WATERS BUT VEERING WIND FLOW OUT OF THE S/SW
SHOULD LIMIT ABILITY OF SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST.

THU-SUN... CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SLOWLY
FILLS AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SUN.
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW REMAINS OVER FLORIDA. WEAK
IMPULSES MOVING SW TO NE AHEAD THE LOW AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ARE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH SUN. HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S COASTAL AREAS AND UPPER
80S AND AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR DAILY HIGHS. LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
70S.

MON-TUE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND IS
REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE FLOW WITH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES TUE NIGHT AND WED
PUSHES THE SURFACE RIDGE/HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN THE WIND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR EXCEPT TEMPO MVFR IN SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
THROUGH 16Z AT MOST TERMINALS. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH ALLOWING FOR SOME SFC HEATING AND REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AFT 18Z MAINLY MCO NORTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE... TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN E/SE DURING
THE DAY AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. TONIGHT...FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS THE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS A BIT NORTH WITH FLOW
REMAINING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT AROUND 10 KNOTS OF WIND. SEAS 2-3 FEET.

THU-SUN...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST RESULTS IN A LIGHT EAST
FLOW AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  70  86  71 /  50  20  20  10
MCO  87  72  89  72 /  40  20  30  20
MLB  84  71  85  74 /  50  20  20  20
VRB  84  70  87  73 /  60  30  30  20
LEE  88  72  91  72 /  40  20  30  10
SFB  87  71  89  71 /  40  20  30  10
ORL  87  72  89  73 /  40  20  30  10
FPR  84  69  86  72 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-031600-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
600 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SUCH INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERATE
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IN VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...LAKE AND
NORTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTIES. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE STRONG
CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
AND HAIL.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COASTS WHERE LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER. ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR PRODUCING
QUICK 2 INCH RAINS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM...DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 34
KNOTS OR GREATER THIS MORNING AS THEY GENERALLY LIFT NORTH OVER
THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE IN
VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...LAKE AND NORTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY