Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1103 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THEN TO THE WEST. THE SHOWERS WERE LOCATED BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...BEING FED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF 250 MB JET STREAK. THERE WAS ALSO SOME 700 MB
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THIS AREA.

THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF. STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO
COMBINE WITH NO CAPPING TO HELP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE MIDDLE
EVENING HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
WEAK TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF MEAN LAYER CAPE DURING THIS TIME...SO NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RAISED A FEW DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND STALL AROUND OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS.

MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH ANY STORMS...ALONG WITH BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH VICINITY AND TEMPO WORDING IN TAFS...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS.

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT MENTION GOING IN TAFS.

FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE LATER IN THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL MENTION VICINITY
THUNDER IN TAFS GIVEN SOME TIMING/AREAL COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.

SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD BE OFFSHORE
DURING THIS TIME. GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TONIGHT IS ON A COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OUT OVER
THE REGION AND WHEN/IF WE WILL GET RAIN SHOWERS/CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT.

CURRENTLY...THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IOWA WHICH IS JUST UPSTREAM FROM AN ELONGATED
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IR/RAP ANALYSIS.
RAIN SHOWERS/CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SEEMS
TO BE GOING A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.
THUS...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING.

17.07Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE FOR TODAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO 0-6KM WIND SHEAR...SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH CONVECTION TODAY.  THE 17.00Z NAM SEEMS TO
BE OVERDONE WITH THE BAND OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION THAT IT DEVELOPS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  WHILE IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE SOME WARMING THIS
MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR...THE NAM BRINGS SURFACE DEW POINTS UP
INTO THE MID 70S IN THIS BAND WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE MORE
LIKELY.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FEATURE SOME RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
IT COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IT IS JUST HOW MUCH WILL WE SEE.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD LESSEN TONIGHT AS THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
WILL BRING A POTENT SURFACE LOW TO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE STALLED IN SOUTHERN WI.
UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN WI ALL DAY TUESDAY. THE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BRIEFLY POINT INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... SO THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY STRONG SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOWEVER... WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP CAPE/INSTABILITY ON
THE LOW SIDE... BUT SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER SO SPC HAS THE MKX AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH A SLIGHT
RISK IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA.

EXPECT THE DRY SLOT/COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE GUSTY...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW HIGH THE WINDS WILL BE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SPREAD IN THU NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
WISCONSIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/SOUTHERN CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS OF UP TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT.  RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE WITH THEM.  IF RAIN DOES FALL TODAY...THERE COULD BE SOME
FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT ALONG THE STALLING
OUT COLD FRONT...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE CLOUDY WHICH MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND STALLS OUT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
545 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-181045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
545 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THE SEVERE WEATHER BEING IN
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS POINT. THERE ALSO IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT IS TO EARLY AT
THIS POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

LMZ643>646-181045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
545 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HALBACH
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
150 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

WIZ057-058-171915-
COLUMBIA-DODGE-
150 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DODGE COUNTY...

AT 149 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BEAVER DAM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEAVER DAM...WAUPUN...MAYVILLE...HORICON...JUNEAU...THERESA...
BURNETT...FOX LAKE...LOWELL...KEKOSKEE...SOUTH BEAVER DAM...
KNOWLES...DANVILLE...MINNESOTA JUNCTION...LEIPSIG AND ATWATER.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4329 8900 4345 8901 4362 8886 4363 8855
      4348 8842 4333 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 240DEG 21KT 4343 8881

BSH