Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE WISCONSIN DELLS AT 8 PM
THIS EVENING...AND WILL ARRIVE IN MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE
ABOUT 1 AM. NONE OF THIS STUFF HAS HAD LIGHTNING AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAPE OUT
THERE TO SUPPORT IT IF IT CAN GET ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NIL AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY POOR. THE
BEST SUPPORT IS ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS
DECENT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED AND LEADING TO SOME LOW LCL
HEIGHTS. WE/RE GETTING SOME SCARY LOOKING CLOUDS AND ONE DID
RESULT IN A CITIZEN REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER THIS EVENING UP IN
COLUMBIA COUNTY. A SPOTTER PIC CAME IN AND CONFIRMED IT WAS JUST A
SATURATING UPDRAFT.

THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE BY 3-4AM TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DUMP
SOME QUICK HEAVY RAIN.

AS STATED IN AN SPS EARLIER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SMOKE POOLING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
IN THE POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. A PARTICULATE FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KMSN BY 03Z
THIS EVENING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 06-07Z TUE. THE COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO BRING THESE LOWER OPERATING CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL LIFT
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-080300-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
947 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...EAST OF MADISON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-080300-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
947 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THE VISIBILITY COULD DROP DOWN TO BELOW 1 MILE AT
TIMES.

LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1037 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIZ057>059-063>065-070430-
JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-DODGE-DANE-
1037 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
JEFFERSON...DODGE...NORTHEASTERN DANE AND NORTHWESTERN WAUKESHA
COUNTIES...

AT 1033 PM CDT...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF
EASTERN DANE COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND SOUTHERN DODGE
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

IT APPEARS THESE SHOWERS PRODUCED A WET MICROBURST IN THE MIDDLETON
AREA THAT SNAPPED A LARGE TREE.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT FOR
AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THAT COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR DAMAGE.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHOWER.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUN PRAIRIE...WATERTOWN...HARTFORD...LAKE MILLS...MAYVILLE...
SLINGER...COLUMBUS...MARSHALL...HORICON...WATERLOO...JUNEAU...
OKAUCHEE LAKE...OCONOMOWOC...JOHNSON CREEK...DEERFIELD...CAMBRIDGE...
THERESA...HUSTISFORD...IRON RIDGE AND LAC LA BELLE.

LAT...LON 4296 8905 4322 8926 4359 8850 4321 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 241DEG 23KT 4313 8904

DAVIS