Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH THREE MAIN
FEATURES OF CONCERN.

THE FIRST BEING WITH THE CURRENT MCS ROLLING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WHERE THRE IS A LONG HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN AT SEVERE
LEVELS AS IT STARTS TO OUTRUN SOME OF THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH IS ANGLED UP TOWARD SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  18.08Z RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE 0-3KM MUCAPE IS AROUND
4000 J/KG.  CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST PART OF THE LINE IS IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THE MCV IS ALONG WITH A BETTER REAR INFLOW
JET...BUT AM EXPECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE TO BE
MAINTAINED AND RIDE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.  WHETHER IT WILL BE SEVERE OR NOT IS
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL BE LEAVING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CHANNEL.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAST THE MCS MOVES OUT OF THE REGION PLAYS INTO
HOW HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE TODAY.  THERE CURRENTLY IS AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING OFF OF THE MCS WHICH COULD SLOW HOW
FAST TEMPERATURES RISE THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IF WE HAVE SOME
RAIN MOVE THROUGH.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
HELP CLEAR CONDITIONS OUT GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE UP TO 90F OR ABOVE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S WITH THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH SHOWING
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION.  FDL AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES LOOK TO BE JUST AS WARM AS
COUNTIES TO THE WEST...SO HAVE ADDED THEM TO THE ADVISORY.

THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE ENVIRONMENT RECHARGES AFTER THE MCS CLEARS.  18.00Z
NAM/GFS/RAP SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW A HIGHLY UNSTABLE/FAT CAPE PROFILE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WIND SHEAR AS
WELL...MAINLY IN THE LOWEST 3KM...BUT IT DOES EXTEND TO THE TOP
PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDING WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE
PROPAGATING EAST INTO THE REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY/0-3KM
SHEAR...BUT THERE COULD BE A BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS
MCS WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.  0-1KM SHEAR
WOULD LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IF THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT WIPE IT OUT OR PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH.
SOUNDINGS ALSO ARE NOT LOOKING AS CAPPED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO
CONVECTION MAY INITIATE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN
TYPICALLY WOULD OCCUR.  THE MAIN WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
IT IS A SMALL CHANCE... BUT THUNDERSTORMS COULD EITHER BE ONGOING OR
TRIGGERED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING.

PLAN ON QUIET AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS... ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
STEADILY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH WI LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA TO PRODUCE PRECIP. THE GFS AND ECWMF
HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR SOUTHERN WI ON WED THROUGH FRI. EXPECT
POPS TO BE CUT BACK IN LATER FORECASTS. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP NOW LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH TWO POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...ONE POSSIBLY COMING THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND COULD ROLL THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME STRONG WINDS AND
LOW VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH IT.  AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY AS A HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS CREATES A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING.  STRONG WINDS AND LOW
VISIBILITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS MAY AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE SOUTH WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING WINDS
AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-056>059-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC

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