Small Craft Advisory 59, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
916 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.UPDATE...

REMOVED FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM FLOOD WATCH...AFTER
COORDINATION WITH GREEN BAY AND LA CROSSE OFFICES. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WISCONSIN DELLS TO PORT WASHINGTON LINE. LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BORDER THIS EVENING...AS
SHOULD ANY FLASH FLOOD/SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
QUESTIONABLE...AS MESOSCALE MODELS TRY TO BRING ROUNDS OF HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF CURRENT AREA
TO THE SOUTHWEST MISSES THE AREA THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED...FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM THE MESOSCALE MODELS WILL THEN NOT
OCCUR OVER THE AREA.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND
CONVERGENCE THIS EVENING...THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN. ELEVATED CAPE
INCREASES SOMEWHAT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...BUT MAY NOT BE REALIZED
AS BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR
NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND PERHAPS ELIMINATE
MORE COUNTIES LATER ON TONIGHT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ENDING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO VARY
QUITE A BIT BETWEEN VFR/MVFR AND IFR CATEGORY UNTIL AROUND 06Z
FRIDAY.

CEILINGS SHOULD THEN BECOME MAINLY IFR OR BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE IN
THE DAY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE
RANGE...THOUGH COULD DIP BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT TIMES. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUSTY AT
TIMES...BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO 22 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE LINGERED
THIS EVENING...AND MAY CONTINUE INTO LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WAVES MAY BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. THUS...MAY ISSUE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. DEW
POINTS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG RISK
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS HELPING MIX
THINGS UP BELOW THE INVERSION.

&&

.BEACHES...

MAY NEED A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR FRIDAY ACROSS AREA
BEACHES...AS GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES COMBINE
TO LEAD TO A HIGH SWIM RISK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

INCREASING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. OVERALL...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVER
AND STREAM RISES AND MAY ALSO CAUSE A SOME URBAN AND STREET
FLOODING.

WAS NOT SET ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH...BUT GIVEN WATCHES
TO THE NORTH/SOUTH/WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FELT PROMPTED TO
ISSUE ONE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE SAKE OF COLLABORATION.

THE RAIN SHOULD WIND DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT ON FRIDAY...AND
TEMPS ALOFT WILL NOT RECOVER QUICKLY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DRYING
THINGS OUT FOR THIS PERIOD. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. DESPITE IT BEING DRY...IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE HANGING AROUND. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
THE SUN WILL BE WELL NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST...PUTTING US IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO ROLL THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHICH OPENS UP THE GULF FOR THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST INTO ILLINOIS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT
AS AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE WARM FRONT WITHIN
AN IMPRESSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM ALL
DEVELOP SOME TYPE OF MCS IN THE SE MN/NE IA VCNTY. THE LOW AND
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PULLING AWAY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WET PERIOD. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE REACHING ABOUT 1000J/KG BUT SHEAR VALUES A
BIT LOW AT 20-30KTS.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY STILL BE LINGERING OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SO WILL NEED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THIS MAY END UP BEING A DRY PERIOD...BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER/NEAR THE AREA AND
MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO GO DRY AT THIS POINT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS...SIMILAR
TO THE SUNDAY EVENT...BUT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. COPIOUS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PULLING AWAY ON THURSDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER MOVING BACK IN ON THURSDAY. THAT/S THE TIMING RIGHT
NOW ANYWAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WINDING
DOWN FRIDAY MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BOUNCE AROUND AS THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COME AND GO INTO THIS EVENING...WITH PERSISTENT LOWER
CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MAINLY
NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK BORDERLINE AT THE
MOMENT...SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WOOD
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>