Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UNSEASONABLE WARMTH ACROSS SRN WI
WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE NORMAL MID MARCH TEMPERATURES AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW TO TRACK
THROUGH SRN WI AND DRAG THE COLD FRONT BY IN ITS WAKE. FRONT MAY GET
HUNG UP A BIT WITHIN BAGGIER REGIME OF THIS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED LOW.
HOWEVER RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WINDY AND CHILLER
REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AFTER THE EARLY/MID EVENING FROPA.
WINDS HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE FAVORABLE ONSHORE FETCH AND
FRICTIONLESS FLOW MEETS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. SO EXPECTING A
FAIRLY RAPID TEMP DROPOFF TO ANY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT COOLED FROM THE
PREFRONTAL LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE EARLIER SOUNDINGS
FOR LAKESHORE AREAS RAISED CONCERN FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY BUT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME BACKING OFF OF THAT SO WILL NOT GO THAT ROUTE AT
THIS TIME. WILL ALSO KEEP ANY EVENING POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER TO INFLUENCE OF UPPER JET
INDUCED FORCING AND EXTRAP OF COLDER TOPS ON IR SAT ANIMATION.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

500 MILLIBAR NVA BUILDS IN WITH SUSTAINED NW FLOW. SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS TO OUR WEST WHICH ALLOWS FOR PLENTY OF MIXING TO SUSTAIN A COOL
NW BREEZE. 925 TEMPS WILL BE DOWN NEAR 0C SO BACK MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
CONDITIONS....ALTHOUGH THE SUSTAINED WIND WILL GIVE IT A BELOW NORMAL FEEL.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH NVA ALOFT AND SUBSIDENT MOTION...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...AS IT EJECTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED. KEPT LOW POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRENTED CWA-WIDE FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
PERIOD AND AGAIN IN THE NE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST PER 3HR PRES FALLS. WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
LOW GENERATING PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS NE IL/SE WI/SW LWR MI VCNTY BY 00Z. THIS
WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH DECENT PUSH OF
NNE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES. STILL
LOOKING AT A 01-02Z WIND SHIFT AT KMKE TO A MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST
DIRECTION. POST FRONTAL EVENING STRATUS POTENTIAL LOOKS TRANSIENT
AS DRYING NOTED AFTER 6Z. PROGS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS INTO IA/MN REGION LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER STILL A
NW BREEZE TUESDAY WITH LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT THOUGH NOT AS
GUSTY.

.MARINE...UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO GALE WARNING AND STAGGERED START
TIMES A BIT IN A NORTH/SOUTH FASHION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS. UPSTREAM POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES ACROSS MN SUPPORT THIS GALE EVENT WITH FAVORABLE NNE FETCH
LEADING TO A SIZABLE BUILDUP IN THE WAVE ACTION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643-644.

&&

CORRECTED FORECASTER NAMES.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SPM

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