Small Craft Advisory 108, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

THE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE
TROF...THE MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT
YIELDING CLEARING SKIES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WAA
WILL ALSO KICK IN OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION
WEAK...ALLOWING SOME WINDS FROM THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY WINDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH BELOW
THE UPPER 30S.

TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL
ENCROACH ON THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST BY MID DAY AS A WEAK RIDGE QUICKLY TRAVERSES SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE RIDGE WILL EXIT THE STATE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SUBTLE TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THANKS TO
WAA AND AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROF...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN JUST AS THE
MORNING/S LOW CLOUDS MOVE OUT. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE THE
PERSISTENT WAA THROUGH THE DAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL MODERATE TEMPS
TOMORROW...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MO RVR VALLEY
INTO SRN WI FRI NT WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH LEFT IN ITS WAKE
FOR SAT. STRATUS AND CHANCES OF LGT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE
THE RESULT VIA LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AND WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS. THE MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WILL TRACK TO THE SRN
PLAINS FOR SUN...THEN LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR SUN
NT AND MON. THIS WILL TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
LAKE SUPERIOR BY MON. A LARGE AND MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH
PWS AROUND 1.30 INCHES WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
BEGINNING SAT NT AND LASTING INTO SUN NT. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
PASS LATE SUN NT OR MON AM WHILE THE UPPER LOW PASSES ALOFT. THUS
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON MON. LATEST RAINFALL
FORECAST RANGES FROM 1.5 INCHES IN FAR ERN WI TO 2.25 INCHES IN
THE FAR WRN CWA. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE WITH
SOME REACHING BANKFUL OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON SUN OF 55-60F.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION FOR TUE-WED AS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE
CHANCES OF OF PCPN WILL REMAIN LOW AS MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN
OVER MN AND NW WI. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NT WILL
DROP HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 30S FOR WED. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
WILL SLOWLY OCCUR FROM WED THROUGH THU...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR
AND BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW. HIGH TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S FOR THU.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
MSN...AND MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS...MVFR CIGS TO THE
WEST WILL ADVECT TO ALL THE TAF SITES BEFORE CLEARING OUT EARLY THIS
EVENING.

THE OTHER PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS THIS EVENING. A
45-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTER TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RELATIVELY WEAK INVERSION WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME
OF THE GUSTIER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT MKE AND ENW RATHER THAN OF LLWS.
AT MSN AND UES...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE WEAKER AND LLWS POTENTIAL
WILL BE LESS.

&&

.MARINE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...AND SOME OF THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-112130-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
317 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.50 TO
2.25 INCHES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREA RIVERS REACHING
BANKFULL STAGE OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-112130-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
317 PM CST THU DEC 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR BRISK WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. A FEW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN...WITH BRISK WEST WINDS ON MONDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

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