River Flood Watch 5, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

RAPID UPDATE/HI-RES MODELS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE PCPN
AFTER 12Z WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DROPPING SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH COLD FRONT BEHIND SURFACE LOW LIFTING AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AS NORTHERN PORTION OF 500 MB TROUGH BREAKS AWAY
AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH UPPER JET MAX...WHILE SOUTHERN
PORTION CLOSES OFF OVER THE SW U.S.

RAPID DIMINISHING OF PCPN ON MODELS SUPPORTED BY RADAR RETURNS OVER
SRN WI QUICKLY DISSIPATING...LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR MIXED PCPN AS
IT COMES TO AN END OVER THE REGION. WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVENT ANY WINTRY PCPN FROM ACCUMULATING ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH 24 HOUR HIGHS HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED AROUND 12
MIDNIGHT...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE REACHED AROUND 18Z THEN STEADY
OUT DURING THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE COOLING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY EVOLVES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH QUIET CONDITIONS. 925 TEMPS AROUND -1 TO
-3C ON SATURDAY REBOUNDS BACK INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY ON SUNDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THE GFS AND NAM DO SHOW A BIT MORE 700 RH INCREASING INTO
THE WRN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGD TO PIVOT NORTH INTO SRN WI ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH
SPREADING PRECIP INTO SRN WI AS THE DAY WEARS ON. 1000/500
MILLIBAR THICKNESSES/850/925 TEMPS AND SFC TEMPS ALL SUPPORT THIS
INITIAL PRECIP BEING RAIN.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NRN LWR MI
VCNTY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST DCVA ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL CAA WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FROM 6-12Z MONDAY NIGHT WITH
1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ALSO DROPPING BELOW 540DM. SO WILL
HAVE A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER IN THE GRIDS TO A MIX OR ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST. FAIRLY BROAD SFC/850 LOWS TRACK FROM NRN IA INTO NRN
WI THIS PERIOD. MODEL QPF PROGS SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH
PRIMARY DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH ARRIVAL OF UPPER LOW. FLOW REMAINS
CYCLONIC INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLING AIRMASS AND
CONTINUING CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LOW WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF
KEEP SOME LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE MORNING WITH LITTLE
IF ANY QPF. FOR NOW THE SUPERBLEND POPS ARE KEEPING IT DRY AND
WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR NOW.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN DETAILS OF THE 500 MILLIBAR PATTERN WITH THE
ECMWF DRIVING A SHORTWAVE SE INTO WI WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE
BROAD 500 CIRCULATION FROM MO INTO IL. ECMWF SHOWS NO QPF WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. SUPERBLEND IS DRY AND WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY WITH SOME
HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE REMOVED IFR CIGS AS COLDER DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH PCPN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH PCPN WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS
COLD FRONT DROPS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS...MVFR CLOUD DECK EXTENDS WELL BACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WILL KEEP CIGS AT MVFR LEVELS UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE NW HALF OF CWA...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SE
HALF AS FRONT SLOWS WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING UP ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LOOK TO EASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT
...WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AS GRADIENT WILL BE SLOWER TO SLACKEN WITH WEAK SURFACE WAVE
MOVING UP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
439 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-281045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
439 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RECENT RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME RIVERS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TO REACH BANKFULL AND POSSIBLY MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE HIGH RIVER
LEVELS MAY LINGER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-281045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
439 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
740 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NNE GREENFIELD          42.96N 88.01W
11/27/2015  M2.10 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24-HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 AM CST.

&&

REM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NNE GREENFIELD          42.96N 88.01W
11/27/2015  M2.10 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOURS ENDING AT 7AM CST.

&&

BHERZOG