Gale Warning 26, NWS Milwaukee, WI

980 
WHUS73 KMKX 280859
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
359 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS INCLUDING GALES...

.LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS CAUSING A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT DECREASING WINDS OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. HENCE THE GALE WARNING
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM.  

BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THEN CONTINUE VEERING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.  

A SURGE OF COLD AIR AND THE RE-TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS RETURNING TO GALE FORCE
TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THE WINDS TURNING OFF SHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
WAVE HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. 

LMZ643>646-281700-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-151028T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0092.151028T0900Z-151029T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0025.151029T0300Z-151029T2000Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
359 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
CDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING. 

* WINDS: SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
  DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. THE SOUTH
  WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS
  AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND THEN UP TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT
  WITH OCCASIONAL GALES TO 35 KNOTS. THE OCCASIONAL GALES WILL
  LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  

* WAVES: 5 TO 8 FOOT WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO S WI. PLENTY OF LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED UNDER DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A SLIGHTLY CURVED JET
STREAK WILL BE RIGHT ON TOP OF US. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE GFS IS SHOWING ISENTROPIC OMEGA
VALUES NEAR -20 UBAR/S. PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOIST
AIRMASS ARE PROGGED TO REACH ~1.2 INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND
RAP BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT THIS
EVENING THANKS TO A 40+ KT LLJ. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AROUND THE LOW
WILL BRING THE STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE DUE TO
DECENT FETCH OFF THE LAKE...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20KT
RANGE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERTAKE ALL OF S WI TONIGHT.
COUPLE THIS WITH THE GUSTY EAST WINDS...AND THERE MIGHT BE SOME
ISSUES WITH VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER VERY
BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION. SOME WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY WEDNESDAY WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20KT
RANGE. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...REDUCING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE PRECIP CHANCES WON/T GO AWAY ENTIRELY
UNTIL THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING ACROSS LAKE HURON THURSDAY MORNING.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY EVENING. A DRY SLOT MAY
BRIEFLY CLEAR SKIES BUT THEN A STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT BRISK WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THERE WOULD ALSO BE A MIX OF SNOW IN ANY SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -5 WITH
THICKNESS VALUES OF 528 DECAMETERS. THUS ONLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIQUID LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS
WOULD OCCUR NORTH ACROSS MARQUETTE GREEN LAKE...FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN AREAS.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN FLOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.

A LARGE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSHES THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LOW ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS IS
MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE RAIN EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH THE
GFS BRINGING RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO A QUICKER MOVING SURFACE LOW.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS QUICKER TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA ON THE GFS...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS BEING ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN DUE
TO THE BETTER FETCH OFF THE LAKE. GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20 KT RANGE THIS EVENING. THE RAIN COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...COULD CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS...POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1SM.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE A DECENT FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE WINDS. WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 5 TO 9 FEET THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME WINDS COULD REACH CLOSE TO GALE CRITERIA
TONIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS SHOULD
RAMP BACK UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-282030-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
323 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-282030-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
323 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION WILL RESULT IN BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM WISCONSIN
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING. GALE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS
PERIOD.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX