Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
934 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND STALL OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND
MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM...BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THRU HATTERAS TO
GREENVILLE. LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING THRU NE/N CNTRL NC WITH A
SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING CELL ON THE SOUTH END NOW OVER WILSON
COUNTY. IT APPEARS AS IF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LIKELY REACHES
WESTERN CWA SOON. LATEST HI RES MODELS HAVE THIS STORM MOVING SE
THRU THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING SO SEVERE TSTMS WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THIS CELL AS IT TRACKS SE.

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN OBX AND EXPECT THAT IT WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DEEPER CAA HELPS TO DISSIPATE
THE THICKER FOG LATER THIS EVENING.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S NORTHERN OBX AND NORTHEASTERN
AREAS TO THE AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON THU PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSRA. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES N OF THE AREA. FEEL LIKE THE AMS MAY BE TOO
STABLE FOR TSRA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT SO
WILL FORECAST ONLY SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT ON
THU FROM NE AREAS MID 60S TO SW AREAS LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING
EASTERN NC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE DIMINISHES ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SO DROPPED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
MID FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN
NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE AS CHANNELED VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING, LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG, PWATS
NEAR 1.50 INCHES, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7.5 C/KM, AND MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC SETUP LACKS
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA, THOUGH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND FAVORABLE PEAK-HEATING APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW DISCRETE CELLS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST THREATS APPEAR
TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUED TO INDICATE A DRIER TREND FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGS COOLER THAN FRIDAY WITH
MID 70S INLAND TO LOWER 60S NORTHERN OBX. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE A
BIT AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFFSHORE WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW EVOLVING OVER EASTERN NC
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE AND TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS
LACKING. DROPPED POPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH IF THE 12Z
ECMWF VERIFIES THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT LIGHT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR IN TSRA FOR ISO/PGV THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS/TSTORMS LINE UP ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR TO SPREAD SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY
THU MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE SLOW TO MIX
OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH IFR LINGERING THRU SUNRISE, LIFTING TO
MVFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY THEN VFR BY THU AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SCOURS OUT IN DEVELOPING SOUTH FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN
HIGHER THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED AS STRONG FRONT MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN NC TAF SITES. GUSTY SW WINDS 15-25 MPH LIKELY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW AVIATION CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU OCRACOKE/SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH CAPE LOOKOUT WHERE IT WILL
STALL LATER TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY RETURN TO S-SW THU AS FRONT
RETREATS BACK NORTH. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD HIGHEST SEAS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
IN GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT
WHICH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NE SURGE 10-20 KT EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS DIMINISH TO 2-4 FT SUNDAY AND 1-3 FT
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE AND
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED WAVEWATCH FOR THE EXTENDED SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM/DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-090830-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
418 AM EDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY CROSSING THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
719 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

NCZ029-044-080-090015-
PITT-MARTIN-BEAUFORT-
719 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN...
NORTHWESTERN BEAUFORT AND NORTHERN PITT COUNTIES...

AT 717 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER BETHEL...OR
12 MILES NORTH OF GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE...WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...BETHEL...ROBERSONVILLE...DOWDY
FICKLEN STADIUM...PITT GREENVILLE AIRPORT...EAST CAROLINA
UNIVERSITY...CHOCOWINITY...WASHINGTON PARK...GRIMESLAND...SIMPSON...
PARMELE...FALKLAND AND BEARGRASS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3563 7680 3550 7700 3555 7707 3550 7702
      3551 7706 3549 7703 3542 7713 3572 7759
      3576 7752 3580 7747 3581 7742 3583 7739
      3582 7736 3589 7734 3590 7732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 306DEG 20KT 3578 7741

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