Beach Hazards Statement 13, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
WITH ONLY WISPY CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE AREA. WE COULD SEE
SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MOIST SOILS FROM THE RAINS OF THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO PATCHES OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH A FEW UPPER 80S
EXPECTED WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MEAN MOISTURE
BUT NO QPF, THUS EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LATE BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. COMFORTABLE LOW
TEMPERATURE READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...MAINTAINED FCST REASONING WITH LIKELY POPS TUE
INTO TUE EVENING...THEN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK AS
PLEASANT DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MONDAY...HIGH PRES EDGES OFFSHORE WITH SLOWLY VEERING WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. TD'S WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH
A STILL DRY COLUMN. MAINTAINED THE MAINLY DRY FCST WITH JUST A 20
POP WELL INLAND...THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD E
NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...SERIES OF SHRT WVS WILL DIG UPR TROF OVER
ERN US DURING PERIOD WITH ASSCTD SFC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AREA
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF COAST WED. SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS BY EARLY TUE IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING FRONT
BRINGING A SURGE IN LAYER MOISTURE WITH MIX RATIOS APPROACHING 17
G/KG BY TUE AFTERNOON. INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH MON
NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS
ON TUE/TUE EVENING. THINK AT THIS TIME THAT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THEREFORE SVR THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED.

WED...LINGERING 20-40% POPS AS FRONT EDGES OFF COAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE THE EASTERN HALF...AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES WITH UPR TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND TD'S STILL IN THE 70S ACROSS THE EAST.

WED NIGHT-SAT...FRONTAL BNDRY WILL STALL TO E AND S DURING PERIOD
WITH PLEASANTLY DRY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. TD'S WILL
FALL INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO LOWS
IN THE MID/UPR 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS PSBL ALONG COAST BY FRI AND
WILL INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HERE. MODERATING TEMPS AND
HUMIDITIES BY SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MAINLY VFR FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH A
N/NE FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION IS INLAND LATE
TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT DECOUPLE WHERE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES 08-12Z.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO MONDAY.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT
PRODUCING A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO MAINLY VFR BY WED AS THE FRONT EDGES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, MAINLY FOR SEAS,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NC
WATERS. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY TO 10 TO 15 KT AND TO AROUND 10 KT
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL AWAY FROM THE WATERS. 5 TO 8 FT
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE
TONIGHT IN PERSISTENT NE FETCH. ELSEWHERE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUN...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO E ON MON THEN SOUTH
MON NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15-25 KT LATE TUE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SEAS WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY TO 6 FT TUE EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE WED WITH WINDS
BECOMING N-NE 15 KT OR LESS BEHIND IT WED NIGHT AND THU. THE LIGHT
NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEAS
IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-104-100800-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
355 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-100800-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
355 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.