Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM THU...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED IN THE AREA FROM NEW BERN TO KINSTON AND GREENVILLE
LATE THIS MORNING AMIDST SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE WNW FLOW AND AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER EASTERN NC. HEAVY
RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION AND EXPECT HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN PRECIP WATER INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES AND
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. GUSTY WINDS VIA WET MICROBRST
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED, AND A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
GIVEN MODERATE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND PERHAPS A
WEAK SPINUP TORNADO ESPECIALLY IN ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP.

LIMITED INSOLATION WILL KEEP HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S BUT WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS INTO THE 70S IN THE VICINITY OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
NC...MEANWHILE SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...A WET PERIOD INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
NICE WEEKEND WEATHER...

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
EARLY FRIDAY. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING
ALONG THE COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS UNTIL ABOUT 18Z ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND SOUTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC. EARLY CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY NICE WEEKEND IN STORE FOR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
AND LOWS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES
ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW ENERGY TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MAY HAVE TO
RAISE THESE POPS LATER ON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 80S AND LOWS LOWER TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RETURNS WITH
NEAR NORMAL DIURNAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY START TO RISE AGAIN WITH HIGHS BACK AT OR ABOVE 90
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRI/...
AS OF 1015 AM THURS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING COMMON
AS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECTED THAT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE
MVFR THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, ALTHO THERE WILL LIKEYL
BEINTERVAKS OF IFR AND VFR DEPENDING WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
FALLS. RAIN WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES AT KISO..KOAJ AND PERHAPS KEWN FRIDAY MORNING AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. CLEARING SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 710 AM THURS... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST BUOY
OBS ARE SHOWING EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE SE NC COAST TONIGHT.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-3 FT THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BENIGN MARINE FORECAST WITH E/NE
WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE CONSISTENT SHOWING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BTC/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...BTC/CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
442 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-240845-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
442 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

NCZ095-231715-
CARTERET-
1237 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CARTERET
COUNTY...

AT 1235 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF RACHEL CARSON ESTUARINE RESERVE
TO FORT MACON STATE PARK TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF PINE KNOLL SHORES...AND
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD CITY...OCEANA PIER...RACHEL CARSON ESTUARINE RESERVE AND
CAPE LOOKOUT LIGHTHOUSE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3470 7674 3469 7665 3472 7669 3474 7663
      3464 7652 3464 7651 3467 7649 3473 7661
      3468 7649 3468 7648 3471 7655 3473 7658
      3474 7659 3479 7651 3479 7650 3477 7652
      3478 7639 3458 7654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 283DEG 10KT 3475 7650 3468 7668 3456 7683

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1240 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILL CREEK              34.78N  76.75W
07/23/2015                   CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ACROSS MILL CREEK RD. 3/4 INCH HAIL WAS ALSO
            REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1500302

SEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
124 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLOOD            1 W MOREHEAD CITY       34.72N  76.75W
07/23/2015                   CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            CARTERET GENERAL HOSPITAL REPRESENTATIVE REPORTS
            RAINFALL FLOODING HAS REACHED INSIDE THE HOSPITAL AND IS
            LIKELY DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1500303

SEK

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