Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Medford, OR

102 
WWUS46 KMFR 211140
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-220000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0008.151221T1200Z-151222T1200Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0018.151221T1200Z-151222T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEATTY...BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...
GILCHRIST...LAKEVIEW
340 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH 
  COUNTY...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FREMONT-WINEMA... AND 
  ACROSS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET 
  WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES. 

* TIMING: WIND AND SNOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE AT
  MODERATE RATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW INTENSITY WILL
  DECREASE IN OREGON BUT WILL CONTINUE AT MODERATE INTENSITY IN
  CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE: CHEMULT...CRESCENT... 
  SUMMER LAKE...CEDAR PASS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDE: SILVER LAKE... 
  LAKEVIEW...FORT ROCK...DAVIS CREEK.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE 
  COMMON WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 
  AREAS INCLUDING SUMMER LAKE AND GENERALLY ABOVE 5500 IN THE 
  WARNERS WILL SEE GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE 
  BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL WITH SNOW-PACKED AND ICY
  ROADS...AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES...INCLUDING ALONG HIGHWAYS
  140...31...395...AND 97. LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ARE
  POSSIBLE AROUND AND ABOVE 5000 FEET.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ORZ027-028-220000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WS.W.0008.151221T1200Z-151222T1200Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRATER LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE
340 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 12 TO 24 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 70 MPH 
  POSSIBLE ACROSS EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN.

* TIMING: BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW
  AND STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CRATER LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES ON HIGHWAYS 140...230...
  138 AND 62 WILL BE HAZARDOUS. OCCASIONAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS
  POSSIBLE. TREES STILL STANDING BUT ALREADY STRESSED FROM RECENT
  HEAVY SNOWS MAY FALL.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

CAZ080>084-ORZ029-220000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WW.Y.0018.151221T1200Z-151222T0600Z/
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-KLAMATH BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TENNANT...DORRIS...ALTAMONT...
KLAMATH FALLS
340 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS
  RISING TO NEAR 5000 FEET BY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
  BACK TO VALLEY FLOORS MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDE: TENNANT...BLACK BUTTE
  SUMMIT...SNOWMAN SUMMIT.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 15 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* IMPACTS: SNOW-PACKED AND ICY ROADS WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT
  TIMES...INCLUDING ALONG INTERSTATE 5 AT BLACK BUTTE
  SUMMIT...HIGHWAY 97 NEAR GRASS LAKE...AND HIGHWAY 89 AT SNOWMAN
  SUMMIT.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

699 
WWUS46 KMFR 211727
WSWMFR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-220115-
/O.CAN.KMFR.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151222T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0019.151221T1800Z-151222T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WS.W.0009.151221T1800Z-151222T1200Z/
MODOC COUNTY-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEATTY...BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...
GILCHRIST...SPRAGUE RIVER...LAKEVIEW
927 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER NORTHERN KLAMATH 
  COUNTY...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FREMONT-WINEMA... AND 
  ACROSS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS. AREAS BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET 
  WILL ONLY SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES. 

* TIMING: WIND AND SNOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  AT MODERATE RATES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW INTENSITY 
  WILL DECREASE IN OREGON BUT WILL CONTINUE AT MODERATE 
  INTENSITY IN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE: CHEMULT...CRESCENT... 
  SUMMER LAKE...BLY...AND CEDAR PASS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDE: SILVER LAKE...
  LAKEVIEW...FORT ROCK...DAVIS CREEK...AND SPRAGUE RIVER.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE 
  COMMON WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 
  AREAS INCLUDING SUMMER LAKE AND GENERALLY ABOVE 5500 IN THE 
  WARNERS WILL SEE GUSTS TO 55 TO 65 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE 
  BY LATE MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL WITH SNOW-PACKED AND ICY 
  ROADS...AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES...INCLUDING ALONG 
  HIGHWAYS 140...31...395...AND 97. LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS 
  ARE POSSIBLE AROUND AND ABOVE 5000 FEET.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ORZ027-028-220115-
/O.CAN.KMFR.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151222T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0019.151221T1800Z-151222T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WS.W.0009.151221T1800Z-151222T1200Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRATER LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE...HOWARD
PRAIRIE...SISKIYOU SUMMIT
927 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 12 TO 24 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000
  FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. AT ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000
  FEET...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADES AND
  4 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 70 MPH 
  POSSIBLE ACROSS EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN.

* TIMING: HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE: CRATER LAKE AND DIAMOND
  LAKE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDE: CRESCENT LAKE...HOWARD
  PRAIRIE...LAKE OF THE WOODS...AND SISKIYOU SUMMIT.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES ON HIGHWAYS 140...230...
  138...62 AND INTERSTATE 5 WILL BE HAZARDOUS. OCCASIONAL WHITE-
  OUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TREES STILL STANDING BUT ALREADY
  STRESSED FROM RECENT HEAVY SNOWS MAY FALL.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.


&&

$$

CAZ080>084-ORZ029-220115-
/O.CAN.KMFR.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-151222T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WW.Y.0019.151221T1800Z-151222T0600Z/
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-KLAMATH BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT SHASTA...TENNANT...DORRIS...
ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS
927 AM PST MON DEC 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING. 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 4 INCHES EXCEPT 3 TO 6 INCHES AROUND
  MOUNT SHASTA.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS
  MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO NEAR 5000 FEET IN THE
  AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BACK TO VALLEY FLOORS TONIGHT.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDE: MOUNT SHASTA...
  TENNANT...BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT...SNOWMAN SUMMIT...AND CHILOQUIN.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST 15 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* IMPACTS: SNOW-PACKED AND ICY ROADS WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT 
  TIMES...INCLUDING ALONG INTERSTATE 5 AT BLACK BUTTE SUMMIT...
   HIGHWAY 97 NEAR GRASS LAKE...AND HIGHWAY 89 AT SNOWMAN 
  SUMMIT. 

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$
DW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
919 AM PST SUN DEC 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGHEST RAIN AND SNOWFALL RATES ARE ONGOING NOW AS
UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE COAST REGION. SNOWFALL RATES OF
AN INCH PER HOUR OR MORE ARE PROBABLE OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH
ABOUT 11 AM. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO LESSER-INTENSITY SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
LOOKS LIKE IT'S HANDLING THIS SITUATION WELL WITH MOST SITES SOUTH
AND EAST OF MEDFORD SNOWING WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS.

LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN PORTLAND
HAVE RESPONDED TO THE LOWER RAIN TOTALS OF LATEST FORECAST AND
CRESTS FOLLOWING THE MONDAY RAIN SURGE ARE NOW LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAJOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
ON THE SOUTH FORK OF THE COQUILLE AT MYRTLE POINT...NOR FOR THE
COQUILLE AT COQUILLE. MODERATE FLOOD STAGES ARE STILL EXPECTED
HOWEVER. RIVER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE BEING ADJUSTED THIS
MORNING.

WILL LET THE CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES RIDE FOR BIT HERE TODAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADING CURRENT WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR MONDAY.
LATEST STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECASTS FOR MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ARE 1-2 FEET FORECAST IN THE CASCADES AROUND CRATER LAKE...AND
6-12 INCHES ACROSS AREAS ABOVE 5500 FEET OVER THE EAST SIDE AND IN
NORTHERN CA. AREAS SUCH AS YREKA...MT. SHASTA CITY...KLAMATH
FALLS...AND ALTURAS SHOULD NOT EXPERIENCE MAJOR SNOW IMPACTS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STAVISH

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AN INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS TO THE
COAST OVERNIGHT...SPREADING INLAND TO THE CASCADES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. ISOLATED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE
COAST...WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. KOTH/NORTH BEND WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY...SO NO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST THERE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF AREAS OF VFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE CASCADES...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AREAS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP IN SNOW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE
WILL ALSO BE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR AND DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH IFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DEVELOPING IN SNOW.
-DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST SUNDAY 20 DEC 2015...SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 NM AND 40 NM FROM SHORE...EXCEPT
NEAR THE SHORE BETWEEN PORT ORFORD AND BANDON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 16-18Z AT WHICH POINT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST AND DECREASE. STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL ALSO
DECREASE, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WE'LL CATCH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....THEN A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH AND INCREASING. IT'S A GOOD
BET THEY WILL REACH GALES, BUT DECIDED NOT TO HOIST A GALE WARNING
UNTIL THE CURRENT GALE WARNING EXPIRES. GALES ON MONDAY SHOULD
ONLY LAST BETWEEN 6-9 HOURS, THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE. THE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A LARGE LONG PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL BUILDING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME VERY LARGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAKER FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS AS WELL.

VERY HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY DEC 21 THROUGH SUNDAY DEC
27...PEAKING THURSDAY DEC 24. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HEAVY
WESTERLY SWELL...WILL LIKELY CREATE DANGEROUS BAR CONDITIONS AND
HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM PST SUN DEC 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING
THE NEXT WEEK. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING THEN THE STRONGEST OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL BE A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE ITS IMPACT ON OUR AREA FOCUSED FROM
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE MAJOR UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST IS THAT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ON A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.
THIS RESULTS IN LOWER STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...BUT ALSO LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH OUR REGION NOW EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE THE STORM TOTAL
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL EXPECTED AND LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS WEST OF THE CASCADES.
A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /PDXESFMFR/ HAS BEEN ISSUED AS WELL AS A
FLOOD WATCH FOR SEVERAL WEST SIDE RIVERS. AT THIS TIME ...THE
COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE IS THE ONLY MAIN STEM RIVER IN OUR AREA
THAT REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THE STORM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO THE
COAST...HIGHER TERRAIN...EAST SIDE AND SHASTA VALLEY ON MONDAY.
THE SHASTA VALLEY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA THUS THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH
/PDXNPWMFR/ FOR THE COAST AND EAST SIDE FOR POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH. WITH THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED...A WINTER
STORM WATCH /PDXWSWMFR/ WAS ALSO ISSUED. FIRST...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY WITH A MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATION TO
OCCUR DURING THIS MORNING WHILE SNOW LEVELS RISE FROM AROUND 2000
FEET NOW TO 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY
UP TO 3 INCHES...BUT HIGHEST AT 3 TO 8 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN
OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS...AND ALSO THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE COASTAL RANGE FROM THE KALMIOPSIS WILDERNESS INTO WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL
LINGER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THEN THE NEXT STORM WILL ARRIVE
AT THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ARGUABLY SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS STRONG STORM. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AT TIMES MAY
BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE THE CHANGING TRACK OF
THE FRONT WILL OF COURSE HAVE A MAJOR EFFECT ON SNOW LEVELS. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SEND SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 3000 FEET
ON MONDAY MORNING UP TO AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH COVERS THE MAJOR PASSES OF THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS...EAST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL TO BE FOCUSED
ON THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND ALSO
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 2000 TO 2500 FEET.

YET ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALSO
BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED TO BE MODERATELY WET AND WEST SIDE
FOCUSED...BUT COLDER WITH SNOW LEVELS OF 1500 TO 2000 FEET. THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY REQUIRE ADDING A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
BEGINNING ON CHRISTMAS MORNING OR CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT RAPIDLY DIMINISHES
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF RIDGING CENTERED
OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA. THE GFS SUGGESTS STRONGER RIDGING WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE DRY WEATHER BUT LIKELY WITH VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. MEANTIME...THE WEAKER/FARTHER SOUTH POSITION OF RIDGING OF
THE ECMWF WOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
OREGON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO ALSO EXTEND INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ031.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ORZ027-028.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 2000
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ023>026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ027-028.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CAZ082>085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 2000
     FEET FOR FOR CAZ080-081.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ080.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ083-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

MTS/SBN/SBN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1229 PM PST SUN DEC 20 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     SNOW             MOUNT SHASTA            41.32N 122.31W
12/20/2015  M3.0 INCH        SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW MEASURED ON TOP OF CAR OBSERVER
            LOCATION IN MT. SHASTA; NORTHERN PART OF
            TOWN.

&&

MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1230 PM PST SUN DEC 20 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 PM     SNOW             1 NE ALTAMONT           42.21N 121.70W
12/20/2015  M5.0 INCH        KLAMATH            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ELEVATION 4400 FT OBSERVER LOCATION KLAMATH
            FALLS.

&&

MND