Wind Advisory 11, NWS Medford, OR

821 
WWUS76 KMFR 140340
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PDT MON APR 13 2015

ORZ026-140445-
/O.CAN.KMFR.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-150414T0600Z/
JACKSON COUNTY-
840 PM PDT MON APR 13 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA. 

$$

SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
522 PM PDT MON APR 13 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GUSTY WINDS
TONIGHT (STRONGEST ON THE EAST SIDE), RAIN AND SNOW WITH FALLING
SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND COLD MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES.

THERE WAS LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS NOW REACHING THE COAST. WESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE INCREASED TO RIGHT AROUND THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH. THE 12Z GFS MOS WIND SPEEDS WERE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN THE NAM MOS, AND ARE VERIFYING WELL AT THIS TIME
WITH WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF GUSTY, BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH
WINDS...INCLUDING GUSTS OF 43 MPH AT SUMMER LAKE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP QUICKLY FROM AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FEET BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION
TAPERS TO LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THE BULK OF COASTAL RAIN
WILL FALL FROM NOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, MAINLY AN EVENING
EVENT FOR THE WEST SIDE, AND A LATE NIGHT EVENT FOR THE EAST SIDE.
SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED AROUND CRATER LAKE WITH 1 TO
2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE CASCADES, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
OF SNOW ON THE EAST SIDE.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE FROM A
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE ITS LANDFALL COINCIDE
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVING
INLAND. I MENTIONED IT IN YESTERDAY'S DISCUSSION AND IT BEARS
REPEATING THAT THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE A RESEMBLANCE TO
WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY. A COLD, WEAKLY UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
THAT WILL FALL OUT OF LOW TOPPED CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SNOW LEVEL ON
TUESDAY WILL RISE FROM AROUND 2500 FEET TO AROUND 3500 FEET WITH
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES EXCEPT LIKELY
A BIT MORE (AROUND 2 INCHES) FOR CRATER LAKE.

VALLEY LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY TO HINDER COOLING
DURING EACH OF THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
COLD ANYWAY WITH LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE FROM CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEST COAST AND BRING A RETURN OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES
WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LONG WAVE RIDGE SETTLES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON
ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE IS TO PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
WESTERLY WINDS. THE GFS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY IN TERMS OF THE
LIFTED INDEX BUT WESTERLY FLOW IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

ON SATURDAY THE LONG WAVE RIDGE REBUILDS WESTWARD TO AROUND
LONGITUDE 130W ALLOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONE
SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT WE FEEL THAT THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO
MORE CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DURING THE PAST 10 RUNS THE GFS TREND HAS BEEN
TO FORECAST HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE A WARM AND DRY TREND. HIGHS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER). IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE, THIS IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID APRIL FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY AND ABOUT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 14/00Z TAF CYCLE

...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS FOR THE UMPQUA BASIN AND NEAR THE COAST.  LOOK
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CREATE A WELL MIXED LAYER AND INSTABILITY NEAR
THE COAST. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF
COOS AND CURRY COUNTY THIS EVENING.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH KLMT TONIGHT WITH WINDS 20-25KT AND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT WITH COLD SINKING AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODELS STILL SUGGEST CIGS IN MVFR SO
KEPT THIS IN MOST OF THE TAFS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
SPILDE/SMITH

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM PDT MONDAY APR 13 2015...A FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PICK UP BRIEFLY BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. STEEP SEAS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND SEAS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THERE WAS SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING SO STAYED
AWAY FROM A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEN MODERATE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SWELL WITH VERY LONG PERIOD WILL ALSO ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THEN LOWER ON FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. /SMITH

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM
	 PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

CZS/DW/FJB/MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
656 PM PDT MON APR 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E GOLD HILL           42.43N 122.99W
04/13/2015  M46 MPH          JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CS