Small Craft Advisory 7, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
302 AM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE END TO THE UNSEASONABLE HOT STRETCH CONTINUES TO
APPROACH AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEAKENS...WITH A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ALSO SLOWLY
DEEPENING. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FEED INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING INCREASED INSTABILITY TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NEGATIVE LI'S EXTEND FROM THE STATE LINE
ON THE SISKIYOUS AND NORTH ALONG THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE MOSTLY IN OREGON. BASES OF THE STORMS WILL START HIGH AND
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE DRY...WITH MOISTURE REACHING THE HIGHER
RIDGES INTO THE AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES INCREASE. THE SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASED UPVALLEY FLOW
SPILLING OVER THE SISKIYOUS PUTTING THE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND
STRONG THETA E CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES. ON MONDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EAST SIDE STARTS THE DAY IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 75 KT JET WITH MODELS INDICATING DECENT QPF
BY LATE MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD INHIBIT HEATING ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED
AT BEST. A SHOWERY PATTERN REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT...MUCH WETTER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A VERY DECENT WETTING SYSTEM. THE
REMNANTS OF TS LINDA APPEAR TO HAVE STARTED TO BE PULLED INTO THE
FLOW OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NORTH OF HAWAII...AND THIS MAY
BRING EVEN MORE PRECIP THAN INDICATED BY THE CURRENT MODELS. SVEN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AREAS OF VFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG THE COAST...IFR TO LIFR
VIS AND CIGS EXTEND ALONG THE BEACHES AND INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY.
THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS BETWEEN GOLD BEACH AND CAPE BLANCO, WHICH
WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT FRIDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2015...SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP AND WIND DRIVEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND MAY REACH GALE
FORCE IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN AND ALSO A MODEST DECREASE OF WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS. SEAS
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY BUT THE IMPROVEMENT WILL NOT LAST
LONG. A STRONG SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING RAIN
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS. /DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

SBN/SBN/SBN