Alert archive / Oregon / River Flood Warnings in 2015
River Flood Warning 9, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this river flood warning at Dec 12, 2015, 10:58 AM PST for Coos County, Oregon. It took effect at Dec 13, 2015, 9:05 AM PST. It was in force for 26 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 12, 2015, 10:58 AM PST (18:58 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 13, 2015, 9:05 AM PST
- Expired
- Dec 14, 2015, 10:38 AM PST
- In force
- 26 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Coos County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 159 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point North Fk Coquille River near Myrtle Point (MYNO3). The gauge peaked at 36.01 ft at Dec 13, 2015, 3:00 PM PST.
- Action stage
- 30 ft
- Minor stage
- 35 ft
- Moderate stage
- 36 ft
- Major stage
- 37 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 14327000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
876 WGUS46 KMFR 121858 FLWMFR BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1058 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 ...The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Oregon... North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... ...Observed flooding changed from Moderate to Non flood severity for the following rivers in Oregon... ...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the following rivers in Oregon... South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... .A series of systems will move through the area the next several days. Scattered rain, moderate at times, will continue through today. A brief break in the weather is expected tonight, then a stronger storm will arrive Saturday with moderate to heavy rain into Sunday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-130058- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151220T0107Z/ /COQO3.3.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T0700Z.151219T1307Z.NR/ 1058 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 ...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate TO Major severity... The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 10:30 AM Saturday the stage was 22.6 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to reach a maximum stage of 27.3 feet Sunday night. * Impact...At 27.0 feet...Expect widespread damage to homes farms and roads in the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.4 feet on Jan 18 1971. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-130058- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.151213T0643Z-151215T0254Z/ /MYPO3.3.ER.151213T0643Z.151213T1800Z.151214T1454Z.NO/ 1058 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 ...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate TO Major severity... The Flood Warning continues for the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. * from this evening to Monday evening. * At 10:15 AM Saturday the stage was 30.7 feet. * Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. * Major flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to reach action stage early Sunday morning and then rise to minor then moderate flood stage later Sunday morning...peaking at 40.2 feet. * Impact...At 40.0 feet...Extensive and widespread flooding along and near the South Fork Coquille River can be expected along with damage to houses farms and roads. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 38.6 feet on Mar 22 2012. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC011-130058- /O.NEW.KMFR.FL.W.0009.151213T1705Z-151214T1838Z/ /MYNO3.1.ER.151213T1705Z.151214T0000Z.151214T0638Z.NO/ 1058 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a * Flood Warning for the North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. * from Sunday morning to Monday morning. * At 10:45 AM Saturday the stage was 29.6 feet. * Flood Stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to reach action stage this morning and then rise to minor flood stage Sunday morning...peaking at 35.8 feet Sunday afternoon. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect widespread pasture and agricultural flooding. Moderate bank erosion along the North Fork Coquille River and its tributaries can also be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.8 feet on Jan 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$ Sven
8 follow-up statements
599 WGUS86 KMFR 130028 FLSMFR FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 428 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... .A very strong storm will produce torrential rain at the southern Oregon coast into Sunday morning. This will produce large and rapid rises on the Coquille River and its forks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-130628- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151220T0107Z/ /COQO3.3.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T0700Z.151219T1307Z.NR/ 428 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 3:30 PM Saturday the stage was 22.9 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast. * The flooding is forecast to become major Sunday morning and rise to a maximum stage of 27.4 feet on Monday afternoon. The river is forecast to subside very slowly and remain above flood stage into the end of the week. * Impact...At 27.0 feet...Expect widespread damage to homes farms and roads in the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.4 feet on Jan 18 1971. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-130628- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0008.151213T0643Z-151215T0254Z/ /MYPO3.3.ER.151213T0643Z.151213T1800Z.151214T1454Z.NO/ 428 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. * from this evening to Monday evening. * At 3:15 PM Saturday the stage was 30.5 feet. * Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. * Major flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to reach flood stage late this evening then major flooding is forecast to develop late tonight before peaking at 40.0 feet Sunday afternoon. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage into Monday evening. * Impact...At 40.0 feet...Extensive and widespread flooding along and near the South Fork Coquille Rriver can be expected along with damage to houses farms and roads. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 38.6 feet on Mar 22 2012. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC011-130628- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0009.151213T1705Z-151214T1838Z/ /MYNO3.1.ER.151213T1705Z.151214T0000Z.151214T0638Z.NO/ 428 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. * from Sunday morning to Monday morning. * At 3:45 PM Saturday the stage was 29.8 feet. * Flood Stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to reach flood stage Sunday morning then build to a peak at 36.0 feet late Sunday afternoon. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage into Monday morning. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect widespread pasture and agricultural flooding. Moderate bank erosion along the North Fork Coquille River and its tributaries can also be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.8 feet on Jan 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$ DW
649 WGUS86 KMFR 130628 FLSMFR FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1028 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... .A very strong storm will produce torrential rain at the southern Oregon coast into Sunday morning. This will produce large and rapid rises on the Coquille River and its forks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-131228- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151220T0107Z/ /COQO3.3.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T0800Z.151219T1307Z.NR/ 1028 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 9:30 PM Saturday the stage was 23.1 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast. * The flooding is forecast to become Major Sunday morning and rise to a maximum stage of 26.5 feet on Sunday evening. The river is forecast to subside very slowly and remain above flood stage into the end of the week. * Impact...At 27.0 feet...Expect widespread damage to homes,farms, and roads in the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 25.4 feet on Jan 18 1971. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-131228- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.151213T0821Z-151215T0200Z/ /MYPO3.3.ER.151213T0821Z.151213T1800Z.151214T1400Z.NO/ 1028 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. * until Monday evening. * At 9:15 PM Saturday the stage was 30.5 feet. * Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. * Major flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to reach flood stage late Saturday night then peak above major flooding late Sunday morning at 38.8 feet. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage into early Monday morning. * Impact...At 37.0 feet...Extensive road and farmland flooding occurs upstream and downstream of Myrtle Point. Some residents of low lying areas in the vicinity of Myrtle Point may be threatened. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 37.5 feet on Dec 22 2014. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC011-131228- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0009.151213T1831Z-151214T1752Z/ /MYNO3.1.ER.151213T1831Z.151214T0000Z.151214T0552Z.NO/ 1028 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. * from Sunday morning to Monday morning. * At 9:45 PM Saturday the stage was 30.1 feet. * Flood Stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to peak at 35.5 feet Sunday afternoon. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage into Sunday evening. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect widespread pasture and agricultural flooding. Moderate bank erosion along the North Fork Coquille River and its tributaries can also be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.8 feet on Jan 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$
159 WGUS86 KMFR 131107 FLSMFR FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 307 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Deer Creek at Roseburg affecting Douglas County... South Umpqua River at Tiller affecting Douglas County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Rogue River near Agness affecting Curry County... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... Elk Creek near Drain affecting Douglas County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-131707- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151220T0107Z/ /COQO3.3.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T0800Z.151219T1307Z.NR/ 307 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 2:30 AM Sunday the stage was 23.1 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast. * The flooding is forecast to become major late this morning and rise to a maximum stage of 26.5 feet on this evening. The river is forecast to subside very slowly and remain above flood stage into the end of the week. * Impact...At 27.0 feet...Expect widespread damage to homes farms and roads in the Coquille River floodplain. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 24.8 feet on Mar 22 2012. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-131707- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151215T0200Z/ /MYPO3.3.ER.151213T1036Z.151213T1800Z.151214T1400Z.NO/ 307 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. * At 2:15 AM Sunday the stage was 32.3 feet. * Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. * Major flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to reach flood stage early this morning then peak above major flooding late this morning at 38.8 feet. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage into early Monday morning. * Impact...At 37.0 feet...Extensive road and farmland flooding occurs upstream and downstream of Myrtle Point. Some residents of low lying areas in the vicinity of Myrtle Point may be threatened. * Impact...At 40.0 feet...Extensive and widespread flooding along and near the South Fork Coquille Rriver can be expected along with damage to houses farms and roads. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 37.5 feet on Dec 22 2014. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC015-131707- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0010.151213T1928Z-151215T0100Z/ /AGNO3.1.ER.151213T1928Z.151214T0000Z.151214T1300Z.NO/ 307 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Rogue River near Agness. * from this morning to Monday afternoon. * At 2:30 AM Sunday the stage was 10.9 feet. * Flood Stage is 17.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to rise above flood stage this afternoon and reach a maximum stage of 18.5 feet early this evening. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage through Sunday night. * Impact...At 17.0 feet...River rises to this stage or above may affect recreation interests along the Rogue River at and below Agness, Oregon. Sudden river rises of a few feet may also affect home and business owners with boat docks on the river. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Dec 6 2012. && LAT...LON 4274 12390 4246 12442 4237 12442 4261 12385 4274 12375 $$ ORC011-131707- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0009.151213T1831Z-151214T1752Z/ /MYNO3.1.ER.151213T1831Z.151214T0000Z.151214T0552Z.NO/ 307 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. * from this morning to Monday morning. * At 2:45 AM Sunday the stage was 31.4 feet. * Flood Stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to peak at 35.5 feet this afternoon. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage into this evening. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect widespread pasture and agricultural flooding. Moderate bank erosion along the North Fork Coquille River and its tributaries can also be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.8 feet on Jan 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$ ORC019-131707- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0013.151213T1054Z-151214T0210Z/ /DEEO3.1.ER.151213T0919Z.151213T1000Z.151213T1410Z.NO/ 307 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Deer Creek at Roseburg. * until this evening. * At 2:00 AM Sunday the stage was 10.6 feet. * Flood Stage is 10.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage late this morning. * Impact...At 10.0 feet...Low-lying agricultural flooding is occurring. Residential flooding begins at this point. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 10.4 feet on Dec 2 2012. && LAT...LON 4320 12324 4321 12317 4322 12325 4322 12334 4321 12334 $$ ORC019-131707- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0012.151213T1703Z-151214T0707Z/ /ECDO3.1.ER.151213T1703Z.151213T1800Z.151213T1907Z.NO/ 307 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Elk Creek near Drain. * from this morning to this evening. * Flood Stage is 16.0 feet. * Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 16.5 feet late this morning. * Impact...At 16.5 feet...Homes in the city of drain begin to flood. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.5 feet on Mar 22 2012. && LAT...LON 4364 12331 4361 12329 4361 12327 4367 12331 4366 12336 $$ ORC019-131707- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0014.151213T1150Z-151214T0031Z/ /TILO3.1.ER.151213T1150Z.151213T1200Z.151213T1231Z.NO/ 307 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the South Umpqua River at Tiller. * until this afternoon. * At 2:30 AM Sunday the stage was 16.9 feet. * Flood Stage is 18.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to rise above flood stage early this morning and peak at around 18.1 feet then lower later today. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.1 feet on Dec 21 2014. && LAT...LON 4297 12331 4293 12334 4290 12291 4303 12279 4295 12298 $$
357 WGUS86 KMFR 131309 FLSMFR FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 509 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Oregon... South Umpqua River at Tiller affecting Douglas County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Rogue River near Agness affecting Curry County... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... Deer Creek at Roseburg affecting Douglas County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Elk Creek near Drain affecting Douglas County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-131909- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151219T1746Z/ /COQO3.3.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T0700Z.151219T0546Z.NR/ 509 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 4:30 AM Sunday the stage was 23.3 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast. * The flooding is forecast to become major late this morning and rise to a maximum stage of 25.5 feet on this evening and tonight. The river is forecast to subside very slowly and remain above flood stage into the end of the week. * Impact...At 25.0 feet...Some homes are flooded along and near the Coquille River. Roads are flooded in spots in low-lying areas near the Coquille River. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Feb 8 2015. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-131909- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151214T2202Z/ /MYPO3.2.ER.151213T1139Z.151214T0000Z.151214T1002Z.NO/ 509 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. * At 4:15 AM Sunday the stage was 33.2 feet. * Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to rise to moderate flooding late this morning and peak near 36.5 feet late this afternoon. The river will remain above flood stage through tonight. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect flooding along some sections of Highway 42 downstream from Myrtle Point and along the highway to Powers. Widespread flooding of agricultural land can be expected. * Impact...At 37.0 feet...Extensive road and farmland flooding occurs upstream and downstream of Myrtle Point. Some residents of low lying areas in the vicinity of Myrtle Point may be threatened. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 34.4 feet on Feb 7 2015. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC015-131909- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0010.151213T2036Z-151215T0344Z/ /AGNO3.1.ER.151213T2036Z.151214T0600Z.151214T1544Z.NO/ 509 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Rogue River near Agness. * from this afternoon to Monday evening. * At 4:30 AM Sunday the stage was 11.4 feet. * Flood Stage is 17.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to rise above flood stage this afternoon and reach a maximum stage of 19.3 feet this evening. The river is forecast to remain above flood stage through early Monday morning. * Impact...At 17.0 feet...River rises to this stage or above may affect recreation interests along the Rogue River at and below Agness, Oregon. Sudden river rises of a few feet may also affect home and business owners with boat docks on the river. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 17.5 feet on Dec 6 2012. && LAT...LON 4274 12390 4246 12442 4237 12442 4261 12385 4274 12375 $$ ORC011-131909- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0009.151213T2325Z-151214T1226Z/ /MYNO3.1.ER.151213T2325Z.151214T0000Z.151214T0026Z.NO/ 509 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. * from this afternoon to late tonight. * At 4:45 AM Sunday the stage was 32.3 feet. * Flood Stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * The river is forecast to peak at 35.1 feet this afternoon. The river is expected to subside below flood stage this evening. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect widespread pasture and agricultural flooding. Moderate bank erosion along the North Fork Coquille River and its tributaries can also be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.8 feet on Jan 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$ ORC019-131909- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-151214T1052Z/ /DEEO3.1.ER.151213T0919Z.151213T1200Z.151213T2252Z.NO/ 509 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Deer Creek at Roseburg. * At 4:00 AM Sunday the stage was 12.6 feet. * Flood Stage is 10.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will peak this mornig around 13.1 feet early this morning then subside and fall below Flood Stage late this afternoon. * Impact...At 12.0 feet...Widespread flooding of structures and farmland is occurring. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.4 feet on Mar 22 2012. && LAT...LON 4320 12324 4321 12317 4322 12325 4322 12334 4321 12334 $$ ORC019-131909- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-151214T0707Z/ /ECDO3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151213T1800Z.151213T1907Z.NO/ 509 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Elk Creek near Drain. * Flood Stage is 16.0 feet. * Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 16.5 feet late this morning then lower below flood stage this afternoon. * Impact...At 16.5 feet...Homes in the city of drain begin to flood. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.5 feet on Mar 22 2012. && LAT...LON 4364 12331 4361 12329 4361 12327 4367 12331 4366 12336 $$ ORC019-131339- /O.CAN.KMFR.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-151214T0031Z/ /TILO3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 509 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning is cancelled for the South Umpqua River at Tiller. * At 4:30 AM Sunday the stage was 16.3 feet. * Flood Stage is 18.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will crest below Flood Stage at 17.6 feet late this morning. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.1 feet on Dec 21 2014. && LAT...LON 4297 12331 4293 12334 4290 12291 4303 12279 4295 12298 $$
059 WGUS86 KMFR 131844 FLSMFR FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1044 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... .[optional - Insert summary here. Leave the starting dot. -OR- delete this line.] PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-181844- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151220T0600Z/ /COQO3.3.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T0600Z.151219T1800Z.NO/ 1044 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 23.6 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast. the river will crest at 25.6 feet tonight...then slowly fall thereafter. the river will remain above flood stage through at least friday morning. * Impact...At 25.0 feet...Some homes are flooded along and near the Coquille River. Roads are flooded in spots in low-lying areas near the Coquille River. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Feb 8 2015. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-140644- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151214T1807Z/ /MYPO3.2.ER.151213T1139Z.151213T1800Z.151214T0607Z.NO/ 1044 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. * At 10:15 AM Sunday the stage was 36.8 feet. * Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage late tonight. * Impact...At 37.0 feet...Extensive road and farmland flooding upstream and downstream of Myrtle Point can be expected. Some residents of low-lying areas in the vicinity of Myrtle Point may be threatened. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 37.5 feet on Dec 22 2014. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC011-140644- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0009.151213T2147Z-151214T1303Z/ /MYNO3.1.ER.151213T2147Z.151214T0000Z.151214T0103Z.NO/ 1044 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. * from this afternoon to late tonight. * At 9:45 AM Sunday the stage was 34.8 feet. * Flood Stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. the river will crest at 35.1 feet this afternoon...then fall below flood stage this evening. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect widespread pasture and agricultural flooding. Moderate bank erosion along the North Fork Coquille River and its tributaries can also be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.8 feet on Jan 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$ stockton
595 WGUS86 KMFR 131853 CCA FLSMFR FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1044 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN OREGON... COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE AFFECTING COOS COUNTY... NORTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER NEAR MYRTLE POINT AFFECTING COOS COUNTY... SOUTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER AT MYRTLE POINT AFFECTING COOS COUNTY... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS OR ROADS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP OR THERE MAY BE UNSEEN DAMAGE TO THE ROADWAY. FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS, VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. && ORC011-181844- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151220T0600Z/ /COQO3.3.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T0600Z.151219T1800Z.NO/ 1044 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE. * AT 9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.6 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. THE RIVER WILL CREST AT 25.6 FEET TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY FALL THEREAFTER. THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...SOME HOMES ARE FLOODED ALONG AND NEAR THE COQUILLE RIVER. ROADS ARE FLOODED IN SPOTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE COQUILLE RIVER. * FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 23.6 FEET ON FEB 8 2015. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-140644- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151214T1807Z/ /MYPO3.2.ER.151213T1139Z.151213T1800Z.151214T0607Z.NO/ 1044 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER AT MYRTLE POINT. * AT 10:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 36.8 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 33.0 FEET. * MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT. * IMPACT...AT 37.0 FEET...EXTENSIVE ROAD AND FARMLAND FLOODING UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM OF MYRTLE POINT CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME RESIDENTS OF LOW-LYING AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF MYRTLE POINT MAY BE THREATENED. * FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 37.5 FEET ON DEC 22 2014. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC011-140644- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0009.151213T2147Z-151214T1303Z/ /MYNO3.1.ER.151213T2147Z.151214T0000Z.151214T0103Z.NO/ 1044 AM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NORTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER NEAR MYRTLE POINT. * FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE TONIGHT. * AT 9:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 34.8 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. THE RIVER WILL CREST AT 35.1 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. * IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PASTURE AND AGRICULTURAL FLOODING. MODERATE BANK EROSION ALONG THE NORTH FORK COQUILLE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. * FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 35.8 FEET ON JAN 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$ STOCKTON
045 WGUS86 KMFR 140326 FLSMFR FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 726 PM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-140926- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151217T0017Z/ /COQO3.2.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T0215Z.151216T1217Z.NO/ 726 PM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 6:30 PM Sunday the stage was 24.3 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is forecast to be near a peak this evening but it will fall slowly. The river is forecast to fall below Flood Stage early Wednesday morning. * Impact...At 24.0 feet...Homes and roads are threatened in low-lying areas along and near the Coquille River. Expect significant widespread flooding throughout the Coquille River estuary to Myrtle Point. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Feb 8 2015. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-140926- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151214T2107Z/ /MYPO3.3.ER.151213T1139Z.151213T2015Z.151214T0907Z.NO/ 726 PM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. * At 6:15 PM Sunday the stage was 36.4 feet. * Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river reached a peak of 37.2 feet this afternoon and will continue to fall to below Flood Stage late Sunday night. * Impact...At 37.0 feet...Extensive road and farmland flooding upstream and downstream of Myrtle Point can be expected. Some residents of low-lying areas in the vicinity of Myrtle Point may be threatened. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 34.4 feet on Feb 7 2015. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC011-140926- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-151214T2113Z/ /MYNO3.2.ER.151213T1825Z.151213T2345Z.151214T0913Z.NO/ 726 PM PST SUN DEC 13 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. * At 6:45 PM Sunday the stage was 35.7 feet. * Flood Stage is 35.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river reached a peak of 36.0 feet this afternoon and will continue to fall to below Flood Stage late Sunday night. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect widespread pasture and agricultural flooding. Moderate bank erosion along the North Fork Coquille River and its tributaries can also be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.8 feet on Jan 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$ DW
829 WGUS86 KMFR 140909 FLSMFR FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 109 AM PST MON DEC 14 2015 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Oregon... North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point affecting Coos County... ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon... Coquille River at Coquille affecting Coos County... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Do not drive through flooded areas or roads. The water may be too deep or there may be unseen damage to the roadway. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit our web page at www.weather.gov/medford or listen to noaa weather radio. && ORC011-141509- /O.CON.KMFR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-151217T0017Z/ /COQO3.2.ER.151211T1019Z.151214T1300Z.151216T1217Z.NO/ 109 AM PST MON DEC 14 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the Coquille River at Coquille. * At 12:30 AM Monday the stage was 24.3 feet. * Flood Stage is 21.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will peak tonight into this morning at around 24.7 feet then will gradually lower. The river is forecast to fall below flood stage Wednesday morning. * Impact...At 24.0 feet...Homes and roads are threatened in low-lying areas along and near the Coquille River. Expect significant widespread flooding throughout the Coquille River estuary to Myrtle Point. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 23.6 feet on Feb 8 2015. && LAT...LON 4312 12442 4307 12416 4310 12412 4323 12422 4316 12441 $$ ORC011-141508- /O.EXT.KMFR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-151215T0301Z/ /MYPO3.3.ER.151213T1139Z.151213T2015Z.151214T1501Z.NO/ 109 AM PST MON DEC 14 2015 The Flood Warning continues for the South Fork Coquille River at Myrtle Point. * At 12:15 AM Monday the stage was 35.1 feet. * Flood Stage is 33.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast tonight and Monday morning as the river gradually lowers. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below Flood Stage by late this morning. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect flooding along some sections of Highway 42 downstream from Myrtle Point and along the highway to Powers. Widespread flooding of agricultural land can be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 34.4 feet on Feb 7 2015. && LAT...LON 4293 12417 4287 12406 4302 12408 4308 12414 4307 12417 $$ ORC011-140939- /O.CAN.KMFR.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-151214T2113Z/ /MYNO3.2.ER.151213T1825Z.151213T2345Z.151214T0640Z.NO/ 109 AM PST MON DEC 14 2015 The Flood Warning is cancelled for the North Fork Coquille River near Myrtle Point. * At 12:45 AM Monday the stage was 34.6 feet. * Flood Stage is 35.0 feet. * The river fell below Flood Stage at 10:40 PM Sunday. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 33.0 feet by early Monday morning. * Impact...At 35.0 feet...Expect widespread pasture and agricultural flooding. Moderate bank erosion along the North Fork Coquille River and its tributaries can also be expected. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.8 feet on Jan 20 2012. && LAT...LON 4308 12414 4306 12412 4307 12406 4314 12397 4312 12408 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 12, 9:23 AM PST, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 12, 9:23 AM PST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
923 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
**MAJOR STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY**
A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH
THAT WE HAVE IN THE FORECAST. WE'LL BE LOOKING AT 18-24 HOUR
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WESTSIDE
VALLEYS AND HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADES, EASTSIDE AND SHASTA VALLEY.
HOWEVER CURRENT MODELS SHOW 700MB WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG,
THUS REDUCING THE CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. DESPITE THIS,
THERE'S STILL A CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR CRATER LAKE AND MOUNT ASHLAND. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE TO REFINE THE WINTER WEATHER AND WIND HEADLINES AND
FLOOD PRODUCTS. OF NOTE IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING
ON THE ROGUE RIVER NEAR AGNESS AND ELK CREEK NEAR DRAIN. IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL FOR MINOR FLOODING AT THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER NEAR
ROSEBURG. THESE WILL BE LOOKED AT IN MORE DETAIL THIS MORNING. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THIS MAJOR STORM. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/12Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST SIDE TO THE
CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY ALONG THE COAST, EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONT PUSHES INLAND. /C
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 345 AM PST SATURDAY 12 DEC 2015....LARGE WEST
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY. HOWEVER ANY IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING WILL BE BRIEF SINCE A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST THE WATERS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GALES MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, THEN WINDS WILL LOWER AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.
MEANWHILE, SEAS WILL BUILD AND MAY REMAIN VERY STEEP TONIGHT DUE TO
INCREASING WEST SWELL. IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS, ANOTHER ROUND OF
GALES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HOWEVER, MODELS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THESE STRONG WINDS AND THE COASTAL
SOUTHERN OREGON WATERS MAY JUST SEE SMALL CRAFT WINDS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. CONTINUED VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH SEAS DOMINATED BY WEST SWELL. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TUESDAY
BUT MAY REMAINS STEEP. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. /CC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM PST SAT DEC 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...
**MAJOR STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY**
WE ARE NOW ON THE PRECIPICE OF A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING THE FULL GAMUT OF WEATHER HAZARDS
TO THE REGION WITH STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WEST OF THE CASCADES AND PERHAPS EVEN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
A STRONG SUB-980 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE
NORTHERN TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WARM FRONT OFFSHORE TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING, THEN
MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COAST AND WEST SIDE THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS VARYING FROM
3000-4000 FEET. SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
AND SPREAD TO THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR MANY AREAS, SO PLEASE REFER TO
WSWMFR FOR THE SPECIFIC DETAILS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. THE NAM12 APPEARS TO REMAIN AN OUTLIER
TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE
OTHER MODELS SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE LEANED MORE ON THE OTHER
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS, WHICH ARE FASTER
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT ONSHORE.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, SNOW LEVELS WILL
SURGE TO AROUND 6000-7000 FEET OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW TO
BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL DIG AND ENERGIZE A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE A GOOD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED...AND WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF INTENSE RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...BUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE CURRY COAST RANGE WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
ENHANCE RAIN RATES. RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 0.50"/HR ARE LIKELY IN
MANY AREAS AND NUMEROUS FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE OUT AT FFAMFR. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS WILL BE A TOP 5 PERCENT 2-DAY RAIN EVENT FOR THE
AREA. THERE IS ALSO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR BURN SCAR AREAS IN
PORTIONS OF DOUGLAS COUNTY WHERE THE STOUTS CREEK WILDFIRE
OCCURRED AS WELL AS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE THE HAPPY
CAMP AND JULY WILDFIRES OCCURRED. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
INLAND SUNDAY AND SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUNGE BACK DOWN TO BELOW MAJOR
PASSES. VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB WILL PRECEDE AND
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...PEAKING AT AROUND 70-80 KT AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. THE RDD-MFR PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKS AT ABOUT 8-10 MB AND
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY. EAST SIDE AREAS NEAR SUMMER LAKE WILL ALSO SEE VERY STRONG
WINDS. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE OUT AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ADDED LATER TODAY. WITH ALL THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE SNOW,
EXPECT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UP AROUND CRATER LAKE NATIONAL
PARK AND ALSO MT ASHLAND. A BLIZZARD WATCH IS UP FOR THOSE AREAS.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN KEEPING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
GOING. THIS WILL ALSO RENEW A LIGHTNING/SMALL HAIL THREAT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP DOWN TO 1500-2000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING AND WITH LEFTOVER
SHOWERS IN THE AREA, EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW ON THE HILLS
SURROUNDING MEDFORD. SPILDE
LONG TERM...NO CHANGES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON'S AFD...MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH THE DEPARTING
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SWIFT
NORTHERLY FLOW, ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN AIR
MASSES. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A FEW SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW ON MONDAY, WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS ACTIVE IN THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 1500 FEET,
ALL BUT THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF PICKING UP SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN THE ROGUE
VALLEY NEAR MEDFORD HAS A SMALL CHANCE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND MONDAY, MODEL FORECASTS DIVERGE, BUT SOME GENERAL TRENDS ARE
EVIDENT. THE RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL COME
UNDER PRESSURE FROM SEVERAL WAVES EMANATING FROM A LARGE BERING
STRAIGHT TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ONE SUCH FEATURE,
NOW KEEPING IT WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE LARGER TROUGH
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE RIDGING, ONSHORE
FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE, SO HAVE KEPT SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN AND HIGH CASCADES.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF, IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME RANGE,
SHOVE THE BERING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF BEING A
WET AND WINDY STORM, BUT AT THIS TIME RANGE, THE MODELS ARE NOT
RESOLVING THE DETAILS, AND DIFFER A BIT IN TIMING. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, BUT STILL SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN NORMAL FOR A
FEATURE 7 TO 8 DAYS OUT. HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE
STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM AS MUCH AS THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST. OVERALL, IT DOES APPEAR THE THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE,
ALTHOUGH TONED DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEKS. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ029>031.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ORZ029>031.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ031.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ025-027-028.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ORZ027-028.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ024.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ022.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ023.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ026.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR FOR CAZ080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 4500
FEET FOR FOR CAZ080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ082.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CAZ082.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ080.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CAZ081.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ083.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CAZ083.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CAZ085.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM 7 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PZZ356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM 7 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370.The office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2:40 AM PST | Gale Warning | MFR | 16 hr | |
| Dec 12, 2:40 AM PST | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 13 hr | |
| Dec 12, 11:07 AM PST | River Flood Warning | MFR | Curry | 49 hr |
| Dec 12, 11:09 AM PST | River Flood Warning | MFR | Douglas | 42 hr |
| Dec 12, 2:09 PM PST | High Wind Warning | MFR | Lake | 17 hr |
| Dec 12, 3:20 PM PST | Hazardous Seas Warning | MFR | 55 hr | |
| Dec 12, 3:42 PM PST | River Flood Warning | MFR | Douglas | 37 hr |
| Dec 12, 3:48 PM PST | Winter Storm Warning | MFR | Douglas | 30 hr |
| Dec 12, 3:48 PM PST | Winter Weather Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath and 1 more | 42 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Oregon, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.