River Flood Warning 6, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
307 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...A VERY STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN
SPINNING NORTHWARD JUST OFF OUR COAST RIGHT NOW, AND THIS BROUGHT
ANOTHER BATCH OF COPIOUS RAINFALL TO OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT HASN'T
BEEN AS RIDICULOUS AS THURSDAY NIGHT'S RAIN. IT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
KEEP AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS GOING, THOUGH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LOTS
OF RETURNS, BUT RAINFALL HAS BROKEN INTO NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BANDS, AND THUS ISN'T THE CONTINUOUS SHIELD OF HEAVY RAIN WE SAW
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. MODELS SHOW RAIN CONTINUING MUCH OF
TODAY BUT BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WE
AWAIT THE NEXT.

LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY AS IT TRUDGES OFF TO THE NORTH. WINDS
ARE ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 60 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND THEY'RE
STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EAST SIDE AND MOUNTAINS. IN
FACT, WE'VE JUST HAD A GUST TO 116 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK (SOUTH OF
MEDFORD AT 5,000 FEET ELEVATION), WHICH SHOWS JUST HOW MUCH ENERGY
IS STILL UP THERE. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WE ALREADY
HAD AT THE COAST FOR TODAY, I'VE HOISTED WIND WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND SHASTA VALLEY. SEE
PDXNPWMFR FOR DETAILS. I THINK WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY WINDS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AT TIMES TODAY, BUT GRADIENTS ARE NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY'S, SO NO ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WERE ISSUED.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH.

THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED AROUND 35N/135W, AND IT
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE IN HERE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN RAINFALL AGAIN AND ALSO
KEEP WINDS ON THE BREEZY SIDE, BUT THIS ONE DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE
AS MUCH PUNCH AS THE OTHERS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING
SHAPE OUT NEAR 150W. THE MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BRING A STRONG, NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH HERE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OF AROUND 990 MB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR WATERS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ISN'T
EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP, IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG
WINDS OVER THE WATERS, THE COAST, EAST SIDE, AND SHASTA VALLEY. WE
ALREADY HAD A STORM WATCH FOR THE WATERS, BUT I'VE ISSUED HIGH
WIND WATCHES FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED OVER LAND LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE
GRADIENTS, I WOULD EXPECT TO HAVE ADVISORIES IN MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THESE WATCHES, BUT WE CAN WAIT ON THAT. NEEDLESS
TO SAY, ALL RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SHOULD BE READY FOR MORE WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY, JUST IN CASE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING RAIN, OF COURSE, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DON'T LOOK EXCESSIVE ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE HAD LATELY.

DRIER WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. OWING TO NUMEROUS SHORT TERM CONCERNS, THE EXTENDED FORECAST
HASN'T BEEN CHANGED. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 07/06Z TAF CYCLE...WINDS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG...GENERALLY 50-70 KT AT AROUND 10,000 FT
MSL...SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SOME TURBULENCE ON
APPROACHES AND DEPARTURES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH WIND TO REACH THE SURFACE AS OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT, BUT THERE CAN STILL BE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT THE
TERMINALS. OVERALL, THERE WILL BE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH
WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION IN -RA/RA. AREAS OF IFR ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND AROUND MOUNT SHASTA. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...YET ANOTHER STORM WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PST FRIDAY 6 FEBRUARY 2015...THE NEXT
STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
GALE FORCE SOUTH WINDS AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS. ANOTHER
STRONGER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ORZ021-615-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ORZ029>031-624-625.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ022-618.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR CAZ081-281.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
     FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.

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