Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2015
Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Jul 6, 2015, 2:45 PM PDT for 8 counties in Oregon; Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Jul 7, 2015, 2:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 33 hr. 8 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 6, 2015, 2:45 PM PDT (21:45 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 7, 2015, 2:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Jul 8, 2015, 11:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 33 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Siskiyou County, CA, Coos County, OR, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR, Lane County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 4:59 PM PDT | HAIL 1.75 | Klamath River, CA | GENERAL STORE EMPLOYEE REPORTS GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORM. |
| Jul 7, 7:45 PM PDT | HAIL 0.5 | 2 Ese Ashland, OR | ALSO REPORTS VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH STANDING WATER ON ROADS AND GRASSY AREAS. |
| Jul 7, 7:50 PM PDT | TSTM WND GST 60 | 2 Ese Talent, OR | BROADCAST MET REPORTED GUSTS OF 50-60MPH IN ASHLAND |
| Jul 7, 8:00 PM PDT | TSTM WND DMG | 1 Nw Talent, OR | WIND GUSTS KNOCKED DOWN POWER LINES |
| Jul 7, 8:05 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.25 | 3 Wsw Phoenix, OR | ALSO REPORTS 1/4 INCH HAIL AND SEVERAL SMALL BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN. OBSERVER LOCATION FOOTHILLS W SIDE BETWEEN PHOENIX & TALENT. |
| Jul 7, 8:10 PM PDT | TSTM WND DMG | 2 Sse Medford, OR | TREES DOWN AT CHURCH OF JESUS CHRIST OF LATTER-DAY SAINTS |
| Jul 7, 8:30 PM PDT | TSTM WND DMG | 2 Sw Medford, OR | NUMEROUS REPORTS THROUGHOUT MEDFORD OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. ALSO INVESTIGATING A FEW REPORTS OF FIRES DUE TO LIGHTNING. |
| Jul 7, 8:33 PM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 1.05 | 2 Wnw Ashland, OR | OBSERVER LOCATION 1.5M NW OF ASHLAND. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 42 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1917 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 94 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
439 WWUS86 KMFR 062145 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 245 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 CAZ280-281-284-ORZ617-621>624-071300- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0009.150707T2100Z-150708T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150707T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS- EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 245 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY FUELS... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY FUELS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: IN NORTHERN CA FIRE ZONES...280...281...284. IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR FIRE ZONE....624. IN SOUTHWEST OR FIRE ZONES...617...621...622...623. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: IN NORTHERN CA...SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR...DOUGLAS...JACKSON...JOSEPHINE... KLAMATH. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE WET CORES. MULTIPLE NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY...AND MAY OVERWHELM INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ ORZ616-619-620-071300- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0009.150707T2100Z-150708T0600Z/ UMPQUA BASIN-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER-SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- 245 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY FUELS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: IN SOUTHWEST OR FIRE ZONES 616...619...620. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: COOS...DOUGLAS...CURRY...JOSEPHINE...JACKSON. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE WET CORES. MULTIPLE NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY...AND MAY OVERWHELM INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
8 follow-up statements
314 WWUS86 KMFR 070209 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 709 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 CAZ280-281-284-ORZ617-621>624-071415- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150707T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0009.150707T2100Z-150708T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS- EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 709 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY... ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. * AFFECTED AREA: IN NORTHERN CA FIRE ZONES...280...281...284. IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR FIRE ZONE....624. IN SOUTHWEST OR FIRE ZONES...617...621...622...623. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: IN NORTHERN CA...SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR...DOUGLAS...JACKSON...JOSEPHINE... KLAMATH. * THUNDERSTORMS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND THE WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AGAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE WET CORES. MULTIPLE NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY...AND MAY OVERWHELM INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ ORZ616-619-620-071415- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0009.150707T2100Z-150708T0600Z/ UMPQUA BASIN-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER-SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- 709 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY... * AFFECTED AREA: IN FIRE ZONE....616. IN SOUTHWEST OR FIRE ZONES...619...620. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: COOS...DOUGLAS...CURRY...JOSEPHINE...JACKSON. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE WET CORES. MULTIPLE NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY...AND MAY OVERWHELM INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
966 WWUS86 KMFR 071158 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 458 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 CAZ280-281-284-ORZ616-617-619>624-080000- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0009.150707T2100Z-150708T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER- SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 458 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS... * AFFECTED AREA: IN NORTHERN CA FIRE ZONES...280...281...284. IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR FIRE ZONE....624. IN SOUTHWEST OR FIRE ZONES...617...619...620...621...622...623 AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF 616. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: IN NORTHERN CA...SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OR...KLAMATH...JACKSON...JOSEPHINE SOUTHEAST DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEAST CURRY. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE WET CORES. MULTIPLE NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY...AND MAY OVERWHELM INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
788 WWUS86 KMFR 071201 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 501 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 CAZ280-281-284-ORZ616-617-619>624-080015- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0009.150707T2100Z-150708T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER- SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 501 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS... * AFFECTED AREA: IN NORTHERN CA FIRE ZONES...280...281...284. IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR FIRE ZONE....624. IN SOUTHWEST OR FIRE ZONES...617...619...620...621...622...623 AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF 616. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: IN NORTHERN CA...SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OR...KLAMATH...JACKSON... JOSEPHINE...SOUTHEAST DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEAST CURRY. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE WET CORES. MULTIPLE NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY...AND MAY OVERWHELM INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
352 WWUS86 KMFR 072253 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 353 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY... .MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WHILE MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THEIR CORES, LIGHTNING OUTSIDE THE CORES AND IN WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS. CAZ280-281-284-ORZ617-620>624-081400- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150709T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 353 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRE ZONES: 280, 281, 284. IN OREGON FIRE ZONES: 617, 620, 621, 622, 623, 624. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: SISKIYOU, KLAMATH, JACKSON, JOSEPHINE, AND EASTERN DOUGLAS. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS. DUE TO DRY TO VERY DRY PRE-EXISTING FUEL CONDITIONS, NEW STARTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM CORES COULD RESULT IN FIRE SPREAD THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE OVERWHELMED AND HOLDOVER FIRES ARE EXPECTED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ ORZ616-619-081200- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150708T1200Z/ UMPQUA BASIN-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER-SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST- 353 PM PDT TUE JUL 7 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: IN OREGON FIRE ZONE: MOST OF 619 AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF 616. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CURRY. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS. DUE TO DRY TO VERY DRY PRE-EXISTING FUEL CONDITIONS, NEW STARTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM CORES COULD RESULT IN FIRE SPREAD THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE OVERWHELMED AND HOLDOVER FIRES ARE EXPECTED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ BTL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
767 WWUS86 KMFR 081031 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 331 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 .MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE AREA. WHILE MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THEIR CORES... LIGHTNING OUTSIDE THE CORES AND IN WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS. ORZ616-619-081145- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150708T1200Z/ UMPQUA BASIN-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER-SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST- 331 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 616 AND 619 * THUNDERSTORMS...ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED TONIGHT AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD $$ CAZ280-281-284-ORZ617-620>624-090015- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150709T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 331 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS... * AFFECTED AREA: IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FIRE ZONES: 280, 281 AND 284. IN OREGON FIRE ZONES: 617, 620, 621, 622, 623 AND 624. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: SISKIYOU... KLAMATH... JACKSON... JOSEPHINE... AND EASTERN DOUGLAS. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS. DUE TO DRY TO VERY DRY PRE-EXISTING FUEL CONDITIONS... NEW STARTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM CORES COULD RESULT IN FIRE SPREAD THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE OVERWHELMED AND HOLDOVER FIRES ARE EXPECTED. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
149 WWUS86 KMFR 081808 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1108 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 .MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE AREA. WHILE MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THEIR CORES... LIGHTNING OUTSIDE THE CORES AND IN WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS. CAZ280-281-284-ORZ624-081915- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150709T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 1108 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE LAST DAY, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN PLACE, HAVE MOISTENED FUELS SUCH THAT THE POTENTIAL OF NEW FIRE STARTS IS LOW. WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, NEW FIRE IGNITION POTENTIAL IS LOW. THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ ORZ617-620>623-090600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150709T0600Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- 1108 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... * AFFECTED AREA: IN SOUTHWEST OR...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617...620...621...622 AND 623. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: SISKIYOU... KLAMATH... JACKSON... JOSEPHINE... AND EASTERN DOUGLAS. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS IN AREAS WITH PREEXISTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS. WHILE MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN STORM CORES, NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM CORES COULD RESULT IN FIRE SPREAD THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE OVERWHELMED AND HOLDOVER FIRES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ BTL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
767 WWUS86 KMFR 081808 CCA RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1108 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 CORRECTED OVERVIEW ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED... .LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WARNING AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE MANY OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THEIR CORES... LIGHTNING OUTSIDE THE CORES AND IN WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS IN THE WARNING AREA. CAZ280-281-284-ORZ624-081915- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150709T0600Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 1108 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE LAST DAY, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN PLACE, HAVE MOISTENED FUELS SUCH THAT THE POTENTIAL OF NEW FIRE STARTS IS LOW. WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, NEW FIRE IGNITION POTENTIAL IS LOW. THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ ORZ617-620>623-090600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150709T0600Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- 1108 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... * AFFECTED AREA: IN SOUTHWEST OR...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617...620...621...622 AND 623. * COUNTIES AFFECTED: SISKIYOU... KLAMATH... JACKSON... JOSEPHINE... AND EASTERN DOUGLAS. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS IN AREAS WITH PREEXISTING DRY FUEL CONDITIONS. WHILE MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN STORM CORES, NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM CORES COULD RESULT IN FIRE SPREAD THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCES COULD BE OVERWHELMED AND HOLDOVER FIRES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA. * VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ BTL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
091 WWUS86 KMFR 090537 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1037 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 ORZ617-620>623-090645- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150709T0600Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- 1037 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING... STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE REGION SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. $$ SANDLER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Jul 6, 9:08 AM PDT, 5 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 9:08 AM PDT, 5 hours 37 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
908 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...OVERALL, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, TODAY SHOULD BE
LESS ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM-WISE ACROSS THE CWA. THE REASON FOR THIS
IS WE'RE LACKING THE FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT WAS PRESENT
OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY AND JET DYNAMICS ARE PRETTY WEAK. EVEN
SO, WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY AND HEATING, WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS SOUTH AND EASTWARD ABOUT 1-2 PM. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AN AREA FAVORED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CASCADES
FROM ABOUT LAKE OF THE WOODS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN LASSEN COUNTY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. THESE AREAS HAD SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
THIS WEEKEND. CONSULTATION WITH LOCAL FUELS FOLKS WILL BE DONE
THIS MORNING TO SEE IF WE NEED TO AMEND THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT
IS OUT CURRENTLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
BAY AREA TUESDAY AND THEN ONSHORE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
RAINFALL, SOME OF IT HEAVY. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
AND LOWER TO LIFR IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING
BUT REMAIN IN PLACES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO EXPECT PATCHY FOG
TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST...WITH AREAS OF IFR
VIS...ALSO LIFTING BY LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CASCADES
EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OVER THE CASCADES
NEAR CRATER LAKE. /SVEN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 6 JULY 2015...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHWEST MIDWEEK...AS PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND DROPS INLAND. LOW NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CA COAST MID WEEK...THAT SLOWLY MOVES OVER N-CAL/S-OR BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BUT THERE IS STILL
MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT CURRENTLY
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATE 900 AM PDT...WE ARE ASSESSING THE STATE OF
THE FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY SINCE MANY AREAS HAD
WETTING RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE REMOVAL
OF SOME OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES FROM THE RED FLAG WARNING.
SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER OUR
AREA AS WE REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE. THIS WAS
IN PART RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DEFORMATION ZONE WAS STRETCHING WITH WEST
WINDS ALOFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AND EAST WINDS WEST OF
THE CASCADES. THIS CREATED A "STRETCH" WHICH ALLOWED STORMS TO FIRE
UP WITH SOME MOVING EAST AND OTHERS MOVING WEST. OF NOTE MEDFORD HAS
REACHED 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR 6 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AND IF WE GET
TO A 100 TODAY WILL MAKE IT 7 WHICH WILL TIE FOR THE 6 LONGEST ON
RECORD.
THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH SOME
STRETCHING IN NORTHERN CAL AND CASCADES. IT'S IN THESE AREAS WHERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEY COULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT.
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS TODAY ARE A BIT
MISLEADING BECAUSE IT'S FAIRLY DRY AT 500 MB AND VERY MOIST AT
700MB. ADDITIONALLY, LI'S WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON IN A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. SO DESPITE THE LACK OF A TRIGGER, THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SCENARIOS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES...WESTERN SISKIYOU
AND MOST OF MODOC COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ALSO...700 MB WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH, SO THERE'S A CHANCE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE SISKIYOUS COULD MIGRATE NORTH INTO THE
WESTSIDE UP TOWARDS THE UMPQUA DIVIDE AND EASTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY.
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND TAP INTO A MOIST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH HIGH PWATS OF 1+ INCHES ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CASCADES. THESE ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH VALUES...AND WITH MODELS
NOW ON THE SECOND DAY OF SHOWING THIS SCENARIO...WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND QPF FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA,
PROVIDING THE TRIGGER NECESSARY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS ALSO CONCERN FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS AT NIGHT...INCLUDING THE
WESTSIDE OUT TOWARDS THE MARINE WATERS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INLAND SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH. WE EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOST FREQUENT SOUTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING HEFTY QPF AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN CAL AND SOUTHERN
OREGON. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RAIN PRODUCERS, BUT WE COULD
STILL GET FREQUENT LIGHTING WHICH WILL BE A CONCERN FOR NEW STARTS.
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLS IN
CALIFORNIA AND WEAKENS. DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FAVORABLE
OVER THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN AND OPEN TO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES. BEFORE WEST WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND DRY
THINGS OUT ON SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WEEKEND MAY SIGNAL A
BREAK FROM THE STEADY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETS UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
-PETRUCELLI
AVIATION...FOR THE 06/12Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR CIGS
AND LOWER TO LIFR IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING
BUT REMAIN IN PLACES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO EXPECT PATCHY FOG
TO LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST...WITH AREAS OF IFR
VIS...ALSO LIFTING BY LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CASCADES
EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OVER THE CASCADES
NEAR CRATER LAKE. /SVEN
MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 6 JULY 2015...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHWEST MIDWEEK...AS PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE AND DROPS INLAND. LOW NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND EC SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CA COAST MID WEEK...THAT SLOWLY MOVES OVER N-CAL/S-OR BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BUT THERE IS STILL
MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT CURRENTLY
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SVEN
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 AM PDT MONDAY 6 JULY 2015...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS WIDESPREAD MONDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FAVORED AREA ON MONDAY ACTIVITY WILL BE
FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND SISKIYOUS SOUTH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE GREATER COVERAGE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
VERY WET. EVEN THE COASTAL AREA MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
TIME FRAME. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SIDE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT MONDAY...BUT WILL START TO COOL
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH SEASONAL VALUES TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. /SVEN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ617-621>625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ280-281-284-285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
MAS/MAP/SBNThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 5:29 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | Jackson | 31 min |
| Jul 5, 6:05 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | 25 min | |
| Jul 6, 2:20 AM PDT | Red Flag Warning | MFR | Douglas, Harney, Jackson, Josephine, Klamath, Lake and 1 more | 17 hr |
| Jul 6, 3:36 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | 24 min | |
| Jul 5, 5:42 PM PDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MFR | Siskiyou | 33 min |
| Jul 5, 5:54 PM PDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MFR | Modoc | 36 min |
| Jul 5, 6:18 PM PDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MFR | Siskiyou | 27 min |
| Jul 5, 6:30 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | Siskiyou | 60 min |
| Jul 6, 3:25 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | Modoc | 35 min |
| Jul 6, 4:04 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | Modoc | 26 min |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2015Red Flag Warnings in California, 2015Every red flag warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.