Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Medford, OR

659 
WWUS86 KMFR 212125
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
225 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015

CAZ284-285-ORZ624-625-220600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150722T0600Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE
AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
225 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 284...285...624 AND 625......

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  IN NORTHERN CA FIRE ZONES...284...285.
  IN SOUTH CENTRAL OR FIRE ZONES...624...625.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES
  ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CORES.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...35 MPH TO AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LIGHTNING FROM INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
  CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE RAIN CORES. OUTFLOW WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND
  MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN
  AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STORM CORES.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS
NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
DW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

957 
WWUS86 KMFR 220540
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1040 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015

ORZ624-625-220645-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150722T0600Z/
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE
AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
1040 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING.

$$

CAZ284-285-220800-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150722T0800Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
1040 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...

* AFFECTED AREA: 
  IN NORTHERN CA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT
  THROUGH 1 AM WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING AND
  NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST
  MODOC COUNTY.

* IMPACTS...LIGHTNING FROM INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL 
  CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE RAIN CORES. OUTFLOW WINDS IN 
  EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS 
  AND MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY 
  RAIN AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STORM CORES.

* VIEW THE HAZARD AREA IN DETAIL AT 
  HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON EXISTING VERY DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS
NEW FIRE IGNITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ALSO
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

847 
WWUS86 KMFR 220808
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
108 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2015

CAZ284-285-220915-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150722T0800Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
108 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING EAST TO
NORTHEAST OF THE MT SHASTA REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AS YESTERDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE MOST LIKELY IN LAKE AND MODOC COUNTY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE EXTENSIVE PRECIP FROM THESE PAST STORMS AND THE
HIGH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

$$

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
323 AM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE
IN OREGON (MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KLAMATH FALLS). YESTERDAY,
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COMBINED TO IGNITE SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM YREKA
TO WEED. THESE CELLS PRODUCED SEVERAL HUNDRED CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES, HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, INCLUDING FLASH
FLOODING OF NUMEROUS ROADWAYS AND BUSINESSES NEAR GRENADA.

THE SCENARIO TODAY HAS CHANGED A LITTLE, BUT MUCH REMAINS THE
SAME. FIRST, THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL ONCE
AGAIN STRETCH FROM NEAR THE TRINITY ALPS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SISKIYOU COUNTY TO SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH, SOUTHERN LAKE AND
MODOC COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. NEXT, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG...FOCUSED IN AN AREA DOWNWIND OF MOUNT SHASTA IN EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTY (VICINITY OF LAVA BEDS
NATIONAL PARK) EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO NEAR HART MOUNTAIN WILDLIFE
REFUGE. COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES THERE ARE -3 TO -5 THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE PACNW COAST. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THIS TROUGH
WILL INCREASE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
TROUGH...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT
PEAK HEATING. WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP AND SUFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING, EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SINCE THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE STRENGTHENING, STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FASTER THAN
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 MPH. EVEN SO,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 0.80-1.00 INCH, SO THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE RAIN PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, STRONGER CELLS
TODAY WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

FROM THE OREGON CASCADES WESTWARD, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY, MAINLY
SUNNY DAY...BUT IT WON'T BE QUITE SO HOT AS YESTERDAY WITH 6-12
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. WE'RE EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S IN MEDFORD, BUT THE MOST COOLING WILL BE FELT IN THE
UMPQUA VALLEY WHERE A MARINE PUSH COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS THIS
MORNING.

OVERALL, EXPECT THE STORMS IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE
EAST SIDE TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH AND EASTWARD WITH TIME AND
DECREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY EVENING, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENERGIZING OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES IN, JET DYNAMICS
INCREASE AND THE SURFACE FRONT GETS HUNG UP A BIT. HAVE LEFT THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST INTACT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER 5 OR SO DEGREES OF COOLING WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT. THIS WILL SET
UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 21/06Z TAF CYCLE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER NORCAL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY MAY BRING VERY HEAVY
RAIN, HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA AGAIN, BUT THIS TIME A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST. ALONG THE COAST...THE MARINE LAYER WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN, LOWER, AND SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE BY MORNING NEAR
BROOKINGS AND OVER MUCH OF THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT MIDDAY TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 310 AM PDT, TUESDAY, 21 JULY 2015... NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE NUDGES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL PEAK LATE EVENING,
REACHING WARNING LEVELS FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA WEST OF GOLD BEACH
AND POINT SAINT GEORGE. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND LATER THIS
WEEK CAUSING THESE NORTH WINDS TO WEAKEN, THOUGH IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING FOR SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO FALL TO BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SVEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 215 AM PDT, TUESDAY 21 JULY 2015...WITH THE
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY YESTERDAY COMPARED TO THE INDICATED
INSTABILITY WITH A MAX NEAR -2 LI OVER THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA...AM
EXPECTING THAT WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING TODAY WITH THE MT SHASTA
AREA SHOWING A COMPUTED FROM 850MB LI'S NEARING -5...AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS AROUND MAX HEATING...THAT THIS AFTERNOON'S ACTIVITY
WILL BE AT LEAST AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY'S. THE PWAT VALUES ARE HIGHER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE WSW ARE IN THE
15-20KT RANGE AND SHOULD NOT LATCH TO TERRAIN OR LINGER TO CAUSE ANY
FLOODING. WITH THIS ALL COMBINED THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
STRIKES OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
	 UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

MAS/SBN/TRW