High Wind Watch 8, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
808 PM PST FRI DEC 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...VERY MINOR UPDATES TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS WERE JUST SENT. THICK HIGH CLOUD IS ADVANCING INLAND A
LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED, AND FOG HAS FORMED IN SOME OF THE
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS THAT GOT SNOW RECENTLY, AND THOSE AREAS WERE
UPDATED. ALSO TWEAKED WINDS WHICH ARE JUST A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
WE HAD GOING, BUT IN GENERAL, THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

WE ARE IN A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM COMES IN. A VERY
WET AND DYNAMIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INSIDE 135W THIS EVENING, AND
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN TO OUR AREA
THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST 05/00Z GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER
PREVIOUS RUNS, SO EVERYTHING WE HAVE GOING STILL LOOKS GOOD. I
SUSPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO UPGRADE ALL OUR CURRENT HIGH WIND
WATCHES TO WARNINGS TONIGHT AND ALSO ADD IN SOME WIND ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE ROGUE VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LOOK STRONG OVER THE MEDFORD AREA LATER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY'S STORM.

NO UPDATES WERE MADE BEYOND TONIGHT, AND THE DETAILS OF WHAT TO
EXPECT WITH THIS NEXT STORM CAN BE FOUND BELOW. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 PM PST FRI DEC 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE
INLAND TO THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS FRONT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE COAST
SATURDAY EVENING AND INLAND OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT. THE
MAIN IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MOUNT SHASTA
AREA.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS
GUSTING TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
INLAND IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND SUMMER LAKE AREA. GUSTS TO 60 TO
65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE VERY
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ROGUE VALLEY AS WELL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE CASCADES. INITIALLY,
AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING
INLAND SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVEL WILL
VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS FROM THE CASCADES EAST AND NEAR MOUNT SHASTA
CITY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET IN THE
CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
4000 TO 4500 FEET. LOWER SNOW LEVELS OF AROUND 3500 FEET ARE
EXPECTED NEAR MOUNT SHASTA CITY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CASCADES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES NEAR MOUNT SHASTA CITY AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST. THIS BREAK MAY BE BRIEF THOUGH AS MODELS SHOW A
WARM FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INLAND SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 7000 FT OR
HIGHER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL GENERALLY
TREND FROM WET AND WARM TO WET AND COLD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH AT LEAST THREE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH.

FIRST...TUESDAY FEATURES A WARM FRONT BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND
HIGH SNOW LEVELS TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES.
SNOW LEVELS OF 7000 FEET AND HIGHER WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOUT 6 HOUR
TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC MODELS.
ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT SHOWS A TOP TEN PERCENTILE EVENT IN TERMS OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT AT
LEAST THE COAST. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL...AT THE
COAST...SHASTA VALLEY...AND EAST OF THE CASCADES AT LEAST.

SNOW LEVELS DROP SHARPLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...REMAINING
LOW ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL HANG AROUND 4000 FEET THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND WITH PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
FRONT...IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BE
BAD FOR TRAVELERS...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD FOR BUILDING SNOWPACK OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK IS CALLING FOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH MEANS
GOOD CHANCES FOR BUILDING SNOWPACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AREAWIDE TONIGHT. HOWEVER AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
RECENT PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KRBG AND
MVFR VSBYS AT KMFR BETWEEN 8-12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND WIND SPEED SHEAR COULD BE A CONCERN AT THE
COAST, INCLUDING KOTH AND KRBG BETWEEN 6-10Z. SCHAAF

MARINE...UPDATED 345 PM PST FRIDAY 4 DEC 2015...A STRONG WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS TONIGHT, THEN NORTH ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BEGINNING THIS EVENING, VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...REACHING GALES AND EVEN STORM FORCE AT TIMES...AS
WELL AS VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER MOST...IF NOT
ALL...OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WINDS AND WIND DRIVEN
SEAS WILL OCCUR. VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL, HOWEVER, IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
MIGHT INCREASE WINDS TOWARD GALES AGAIN. IN THE EXTENDED, ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA BRINGING ANOTHER SET OF
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH EACH OTHER AND FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS. CHANCES ARE THAT CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE LATE NEXT WEEK
AS WE NEAR THE BEGINNING OF CRAB SEASON. -SCHAAF

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ030-031.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081-082.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-376.
     STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.