High Wind Watch 10, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
125 PM PST TUE DEC 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...08/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

THE STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE EJECTED BY THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCOMING FRONT
THAT WILL BRING HIGH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MEDFORD CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE INCREASING AT
THIS TIME WITH GUSTS TO 62 MPH AT SQUAW PEAK...TO 45 MPH AT ONION
MOUNTAIN...AND 44 MPH AT SUMMER LAKE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND ALONG THE COAST. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FEET.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL REPLAY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER EJECTED SHORT WAVE PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT ONSHORE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT
FRONT...JUMP BACKUP TO 7000 FEET WEDNESDAY...THEN PLUNGE TO 3500
TO 4000 FEET BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONT. BY THIS TIME
FLOODING OF COASTAL RIVERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. QPF VALUES HAVE
BEEN EXAMINED AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MAIN STEM RIVERS
WILL NOT FLOOD. HOWEVER...SMALLER STREAMS MAY FLOOD AND AN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF COOS...CURRY...
JOSEPHINE...AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY...BUT ONE
MORE WEAKER FRONT WILL PRECEDE IT FRIDAY MORNING. A FLAT RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA...AND THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS DEPICT A WEAK RIDGE OVERHEAD AS THE EXTENDED
TERM BEGINS, THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO THINK THAT THE WET PATTERN
WILL END OR EVEN TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, AND WITH A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT PUSHING ONSHORE LATER
IN THE DAY SATURDAY, ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
THE GFS AND EC MAINTAIN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, AND THE ONE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND ON
SUNDAY. DESPITE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS, HAVE KEPT AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY SEEING ANOTHER TWO ROUNDS OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE MODEL SOLUTION BEGIN TO DIVERGE, BUT ARE
SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL WET PATTERN. HOWEVER, THIS DOES
NOT MEAN WE ARE SEEING THE END, AS CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY DROPS
SIGNIFICANTLY. HAVE DROPPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT AM STILL MAINTAINING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST
AREAS. LOOKING FURTHER OUT, THE HEMISPHERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN UPSTREAM, SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE EARLY IN THE WEEK, SUSPECT
MORE WET SYSTEM ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 08/18Z TAF CYCLE...MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY VFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MAINLY COASTAL
SHOWERS. BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND ALONG THE CASCADES. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE COAST AND THE WEST SIDE AS THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS TO THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT, THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. -BPN/DW

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PST TUESDAY 8 DEC 2015...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS TO
THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHWEST OF
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, BUT IT STILL APPEARS TO
BE A VERY STRONG SYSTEM WITH HIGH END GALES TO PERHAPS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS. IN LINE WITH THE WEAKER
SOLUTION...RATHER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS OF 30 TO 35 FEET
SEAS...SWELL DOMINATED SEAS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE 25 TO 30 FEET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -BPN/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY
        FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
        MORNING FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY
        FOR ORZ021-022.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
        FOR ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
        ORZ021-022-024.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
        NIGHT FOR ORZ021.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
        ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY
        FOR CAZ085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
        MORNING FOR CAZ085.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
        CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
        THURSDAY MORNING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
        EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
        MORNING FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
        PZZ350-356-376.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
        FOR PZZ350-356.

15/11/08

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