High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
953 AM PST TUE FEB 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY
OF RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY IN
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KLAMATH COUNTY. A FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN OREGON WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA.

THE FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE SERIES OF
STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL IN CURRY, JOSEPHINE, AND SISKIYOU
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...FROM THE CASCADES
WEST...AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE REMAINDER MVFR CIGS WITH
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
EAST FO THE CASCADES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. /JRS

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 220 AM PST TUESDAY 3 FEBRUARY 2015...WEST SWELL
WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE.
SEVERAL STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GALES AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LONG
DURATION AND FETCH OF THIS STORM SERIES WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF VERY STEEP SEAS. /JRS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM PST TUE FEB 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE WET ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SEVERAL STORM
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL.
MEDFORD TALLIED A RECORD RAINFALL YESTERDAY (0.67 INCHES) AND
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
RIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
THE CWA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT VARYING
RATES...HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY THIS
MORNING...THEN WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND END ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SOUTHEAST SECTIONS NEAR
ALTURAS MAY MISS OUT ON THE RAIN ALTOGETHER. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE CASCADES.

WE'LL GET ABOUT A 24-HOUR BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES IN ALOFT.

MEANWHILE, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL GATHER OFFSHORE AND A SERIES
OF WET, WINDY FRONTAL SYSTEMS WITH AMPLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL TAKE AIM AT THE AREA. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER WILL FOLLOW
QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TWO MORE SYSTEMS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH OTH-ACV REACHING APPROXIMATELY 7-9 MB BY
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT WITH RESPECT TO THE GRADIENT,
BUT ARE STILL INDICATING A HEALTHY 65-75KT JET AT 925MB MOVING
ONSHORE WITH THE FIRST TWO FRONTS. HIGH END GALE TO PERHAPS EVEN
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE
NEW 12Z DATA FOR POTENTIAL HIGH WIND WATCH HEADLINES ALONG THE
COAST. INLAND, EXPECT WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS WELL AS THE SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE AS 700 MB WINDS
REACH 50-60 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN 65-75KT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MFR-RDD GRADIENT PEAKS AROUND 5-7 MB,
SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE ROGUE
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY NEAR
ASHLAND WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGER WINDS.

RAINFALL WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WITH THESE FRONTS ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CURRY MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED FLOW WILL SQUEEZE OUT EVERY DROP. BY THE TIME RAINFALL
ENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 7-DAY AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 15 INCHES. THE REST OF THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE 7-DAY RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH 2-5 INCHES FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. EAST SIDE
AREAS COULD GET 1-2 INCHES.

SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT...SO WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTER HEADLINES. SPILDE

HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID RUNOFF WHEN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. AT THE VERY LEAST WE'LL SEE
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...SINCE RAIN RATES THERE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SEE ESFMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. -MND/SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     FRIDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

DW/BPN/MND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
935 AM PST TUE FEB 3 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE NORTH BEND        43.42N 124.20W
02/03/2015  M1.17 INCH       COOS               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 1.17 INCHES OF RAIN
            OCCURRING BETWEEN 11 PM YESTERDAY AND 7 AM
            TODAY. HEAVY RAIN DURATION 9 HOURS. OBSERVER
            LOCATION 3 MI E OF NORTH BEND.

&&

BS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1219 PM PST TUE FEB 3 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KERBY                   42.19N 123.65W
02/03/2015  M1.10 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 18 HOUR RAINFALL
            TOTAL OF 1.10 INCHES. REPORT TAKEN AT 11:30
            AM. HEAVY RAIN DURATION 18 HOURS. OBSERVER
            LOCATION MIDDLE OF KERBY BEHIND STONE FRONT
            TAVERN.

&&

BS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
215 PM PST TUE FEB 3 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW BROOKINGS         42.12N 124.34W
02/03/2015  M2.50 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 2.5 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL BETWEEN 9:00 AM ON 2/2/2015 THROUGH
            12:00 PM 2/3/2015 HEAVY RAIN DURATION 27
            HOURS. OBSERVER LOCATION NEAR CAPE FERRELO.

&&

BS