Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT LOW WERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...HELPING
FILTER IN DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
DEWPOINTS WERE MIXING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL AT 1.4-1.5 INCHES BY THE LAKE AND
1.6-1.7 INCHES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR
WILL PREVAIL...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS NORTHEAST AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND WEST.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE
REINFORCED AND DEEPEN AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...BUT STILL ONLY
TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE WILL GET SHUNTED INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY TO DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS NORTHWARD.
THE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A RETURN OF THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IS KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA THUS FAR. WITH THE ON-SET OF THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 19Z...TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCTS
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO GROUND ASSIGNED
FROM 20Z TO 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN EASTERLY WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY
AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET. THE WIND IS FORECAST SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  90  76  91 /  10  10   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  80  91 /  10  10   0  10
MIAMI            79  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  92  74  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...84/AK
AVIATION...60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
102015-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR AND THE GULF COAST. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS EXISTS AT THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, FLOODING AND
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
453 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

FLZ070-102130-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
453 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR CENTRAL COLLIER
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

* AT 452 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
  MILES NORTH OF COPELAND...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF AVE MARIA...MOVING
  WEST AT 15 MPH.

* FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...
  SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE
  POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
  FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS
  CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
  SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
  PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...DEEP LAKE...MILES CITY...SOUTH BLOCKS
  GOLDE...INTERSECTION I-75 AND EVERGLADES BLVD...INTERSECTION
  ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 839 AND PICAYUNE STRAND STATE FOREST.

LAT...LON 2620 8126 2603 8129 2603 8162 2625 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 094DEG 13KT 2613 8139

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
513 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

FLZ069-070-102200-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
513 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR WEST CENTRAL
COLLIER COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

* AT 513 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
  MILES EAST OF WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...OR 9 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

* FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...
  SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE
  POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
  FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS
  CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
  SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
  PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NAPLES...GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...VINEYARDS...WEST TOLL GATE ON
  ALLIGATOR ALLEY...NAPLES MANOR...EAST NAPLES...BELLE MEADE...NORTH
  NAPLES...GOLDEN GATE...LELY RESORT...NAPLES PARK...FIDDLERS
  CREEK...LELY...INTERSECTION I-75 AND EVERGLADES BLVD.

LAT...LON 2622 8139 2604 8140 2601 8174 2602 8174
      2601 8176 2601 8175 2600 8176 2602 8177
      2602 8176 2603 8176 2603 8177 2609 8180
      2627 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 090DEG 16KT 2614 8150

GREGORIA