Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THERE COULD BE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
WORKING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS DURING MONDAY...BUT  THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS
MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLS OVERHEAD FROM THE SOUTHEAST /POSSIBLY SAL-
RELATED/. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS TREND
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RIDGE WEAKENS A
BIT. ULVL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH OVER NERN CONUS...WITH ECMWF
SUGGESTING STRONGER TROUGH REACHING INTO THE SE US. GFS HAS SURGE
OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST INCREASE IN OVERALL RAIN CHANCES AS WIND FIELD
TURNS SOUTHERLY FRIDAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY. IF THIS PANS
OUT...STORMS WILL BE STEERED TOWARD THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY.

&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS OVER ALL OF THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT OR BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&

.CLIMATE...
HERE IS THE PRECIPITATION SO FAR FOR JUNE AND FOR THE YEAR
AT THE ASOS SITES ALONG WITH THE PERCENT OF RAINFALL AS OF JUNE 19,2015.

CITIES       JUNE RAIN   JUNE %    YEARLY RAIN   YEARLY &
MIA             2.04      34%         13.54        63%
FLL             0.88      14%         14.93        63%
PBI             2.26      43%         16.01        67%
APF             4.15      83%         12.17        72%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  91  79  91 /  10  10  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  81  90 /  10  10  10  20
MIAMI            79  91  80  91 /  10  10  10  20
NAPLES           76  92  76  92 /  50  30  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
210115-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
906 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS.

WIND: THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH, MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR
AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.

TEMPERATURES: THE HEAT INDEX COULD REACH TO BETWEEN 100 AND 107 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION IS VERY FAVORABLE TODAY FOR
THE PRODUCTION OF WATERSPOUTS WITHIN LINES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
THERE IS A HIGHER RISK THAN USUAL FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING.

FLOODING: WITH SLOW STORM MOTION EXPECTED TODAY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
247 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

FLZ073-075-174-201930-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-MAINLAND MONROE FL-INLAND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-
247 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR WEST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE AND EAST CENTRAL
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

* AT 247 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  NEAR PA-HAY-OKEE OVERLOOK...OR 16 MILES WEST OF HOMESTEAD GENERAL
  AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
  GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER
  RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
  PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
  AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
  BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PA-HAY-OKEE OVERLOOK.

LAT...LON 2527 8091 2526 8092 2534 8097 2533 8097
      2535 8099 2533 8102 2537 8104 2542 8097
      2543 8109 2555 8117 2557 8111 2553 8106
      2553 8105 2554 8105 2557 8106 2557 8110
      2568 8080 2558 8068 2521 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 045DEG 16KT 2552 8081

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

FLZ073-075-174-202015-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-MAINLAND MONROE FL-INLAND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR WEST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE AND CENTRAL
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* AT 336 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILDERNESS WATERWAY...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF
  MONROE STATION...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
  GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.  LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER
  RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
  PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
  AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
  BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILDERNESS WATERWAY.

LAT...LON 2542 8097 2543 8115 2553 8120 2553 8106
      2557 8105 2561 8112 2561 8111 2562 8112
      2555 8122 2568 8129 2569 8128 2570 8118
      2571 8118 2574 8121 2570 8092 2538 8081
      2528 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 100DEG 17KT 2556 8103

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
621 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

FLZ069-070-202300-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
621 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

* AT 621 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  NEAR LELY RESORT...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...
  MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING
  IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN
  SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO
  PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
  BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NAPLES...MARCO ISLAND...GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...VINEYARDS...WEST TOLL
  GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...NAPLES MANOR...EAST NAPLES...BELLE
  MEADE...MARCO ISLAND AIRPORT...GOLDEN GATE...LELY RESORT...ROYAL
  PALM HAMMOCK...NORTH NAPLES...FIDDLERS CREEK...LELY...INTERSECTION
  I-75 AND EVERGLADES BLVD...ROOKERY BAY AQUATIC PRESERVE AND
  GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 2629 8171 2617 8152 2590 8161 2590 8164
      2594 8164 2590 8165 2594 8169 2593 8173
      2596 8175 2596 8171 2595 8167 2597 8166
      2598 8173 2599 8172 2601 8176 2597 8175
      2600 8176 2609 8180
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 120DEG 8KT 2608 8165

10