Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CI DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS HELD ON IN SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SUPPRESSING INSTABILITY AND
TEMPERATURES TO SOME DEGREE. THUS...TSTM CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED
TODAY.

WEAK M/ULVL LOPRES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. EXPECT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...LEADING TO EVEN LOWER POPS ALONG ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION REMAINING SCATTERED AND
INLAND. OVERNIGHT BREEZE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MINIMA
WARM...NEAR 80F...WITH MAXIMA AREAWIDE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

EASTERLY WIND INCREASE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ON ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ANTICIPATED. OVERALL...FCST RNFL AMOUNTS WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP. MUCH MORE STABLE LOW
AND MID LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT
CONVECTION FROM FORMING THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST
COASTAL AREAS BUT MAY FILL BACK IN SHORTLY WITH THICKER CIRRUS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MUCH LESS IN
COVERAGE THAN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY WIND TO THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK..ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS.  SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  89  80  89 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  79  87 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            78  89  78  88 /  10  20  20  30
NAPLES           77  91  75  90 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
112015-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
402 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...THERE IS A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 55
MPH.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: THE COMBINATION OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

FLZ075-112100-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-
417 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* AT 416 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WILDERNESS WATERWAY...OR 15 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF CHOKOLOSKEE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING
  IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN
  SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO
  PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
  BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILDERNESS WATERWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 2563 8124 2568 8129 2572 8122 2570 8121
      2570 8119 2569 8120 2569 8118 2576 8123
      2577 8125 2576 8126 2578 8127 2580 8122
      2561 8102 2557 8107 2558 8111 2556 8112
      2555 8110 2549 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 133DEG 12KT 2562 8119

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