Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE'S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  20  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1209 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
230415-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1209 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES BY SUNDAY-MEMORIAL DAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG, CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

FLOODING: ISOLATED STREET AND LOW LYING FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS.

VISIBILITY: POOR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE LARGE WILDFIRE IN RURAL
COLLIER COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY WANE AND SHIFT
TO THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN
EASTERLY AND INCREASE. THIS STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL LEAD TO ROUGH
SURF AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE GREATEST SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

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