Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MAY TYPE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AT LEAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW POSSIBLE STRONG
EXTENDING THE SOUTH FLORIDA AIRMASS WHERE LOWER TO MID 70S DEW
POINTS CURRENTLY EXIST. THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FROM THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD ALONG WITH MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THIS WILL PREVENT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. RADAR
SIGNATURES HAVE ALREADY INDICATED POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS OF OVER 45 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN A NEAR ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOST AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO BE TODAY WITH PWAT DROPPING AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OR SO
BY SATURDAY. SO TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH MOST ACTION
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES VERY WEAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON BOTH COASTS WITH
THIS BEING THE FOCUS FOR AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
ON SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS COAST. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE EAST COAST
HEATING UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN
UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND
MOVES EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND INTO NORTH
FLORIDA/ALABAMA GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO MOVES INTO THAT SAME GENERAL AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH
THE SURFACE LOW AND THE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR
PATTERN WITH TIMING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALSO. DUE TO THE
GFS DEPICTING A STRONGER AND DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH, IT ALSO HAS
A STRONGER PUSH OF A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE!

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE WIND VEERING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN BOTH THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS OF 4 FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  87  74  87 /  20  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  76  87 /  20  40  20  20
MIAMI            74  90  75  89 /  20  50  20  20
NAPLES           73  88  73  88 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
240700-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
300 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TORNADOES: AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION TO THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
BISCAYNE BAY, AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

WIND: ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZED HAIL ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO PONDING
OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

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