Special Marine Warning 252, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
AXIS AND MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF GRACE, WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVESWEST.
THE BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW, ATTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN MID ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE/TROUGH, WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LESS THAN
WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING THIS
TREND AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015/

AVIATION...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CELLS, MAINLY QUICK MOVING SHOWERS
WITH GUSTY WINDS HAVE MOVED NEARBY TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH TS BECOMING MORE
PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HOWEVER ONLY SCATTERED AT BEST,
AND MAY NOT BE WORTHY OF VCTS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS OR STORMS. EAST WINDS SUSTAINED 15-20 KTS MAY GUST TO
25KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  78 /  60  40  60  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  87  79 /  50  50  60  60
MIAMI            90  80  88  78 /  50  50  50  50
NAPLES           92  76  89  75 /  60  50  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     AMZ630-651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
151945-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
336 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC WATERS...
...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS.

FLOODING: THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO PRODUCE
STREET FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

KONARIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
652 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE      25.59N  80.10W
09/15/2015  M40 MPH          AMZ651             FL   BUOY

            ANEMOMETER IS 43 METERS ABOVE SITE ELEVATION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1500312

KM