Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
401 PM EST MON FEB 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. STRONGER
MIDLEVEL WINDS AND BETTER INSTABILITY NOW ARRIVING FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. WITH CLOUDS BREAKING A BIT ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW, THERE'S
A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED STORM WITH GUSTY
WINDS TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN
UVV IS STRONGEST THROUGH MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY.
RUC HAS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS CLIPPING MIAMI BEACH WITH
1K J/KG OF SBCAPE LATE PM. GUIDANCE ENDS MUCH OF THE PRECIP BY 9Z
TUES.

SURFACE WINDS TURN NW AND GUSTY, PERHAPS TO 30 MPH, AS PHASING
OCCURS WITH AN H5 LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN EARNEST WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY BELOW 0.50" BY 0Z
WEDNESDAY. SOME LLVL MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION WILL STILL PRODUCE
FLAT CU EARLY. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CAA CONTINUES IN WAKE OF THE STRONG LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC. LOWS WILL SLIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND, TO
THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, UNTIL THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND A FRONT PROGGED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A THIN
RIBBON OF MOISTURE AT H85, SHOWERS ARE ONLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, IF ANY AT ALL.

WITH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH STUCK AND REINFORCED BY NUMEROUS
CLIPPERS THIS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS LIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TO END THE FORECAST.
BOTH THE NAEFS/GEFS ARE ALMOST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
FOR SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 12Z SATURDAY. AS USUAL THE MEX MOS NUMBERS
ARE THE COLDEST OF THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE SUITE, WITH THE ECMWF MOS
WARMER. MUCH TOO EARLY TO LATCH ON TO ONE EXTREME RUN OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS, ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IF
A DECENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
THE GFS DEPICTS FOR 12Z SATURDAY. FOR NOW, WILL FOLLOW LOCAL BLENDS
WHICH ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE MEDIAN OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPS. AT
THE VERY LEAST, MAX T IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA DURING AT LEAST ONE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DAYS.
THE LAKE REGION AND THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR COULD FALL INTO THE 30S
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NEITHER THE NAO
OR PNA ARE IN A FAVORABLE PHASE FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO THE 18 TO 24 KNOT AFTER A COLD FRONT
CROSSES TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND OFF SHORE GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED. HAZARDOUS
SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT
LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD ENTER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACT EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEAS MAY BECOME
HAZARDOUS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  73  52  73 /  70  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  73  52  72 /  50  10   0   0
MIAMI            60  74  53  73 /  50  10   0   0
NAPLES           61  67  47  70 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
456 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
092200-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
456 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

WIND: WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 57
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

FLOODING: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING, WITH MAINLY URBAN
TYPE FLOODING IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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