Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
AT A MORE RAPID PACE THAN SEEN YESTERDAY THANKS TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE OVERALL FLOOD
THREAT. HOWEVER...BRIEF LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AS HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS URBAN AREAS. STILL
BELIEVE THE COVERAGE AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THAT OF
YESTERDAY WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE QUICKER STORM MOTION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION...THUS POSSIBLY
REDUCING OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID
LEVEL TROUGHING.

MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT USHERING IN AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BECOMING THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE STRONGER RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW
OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DECREASE AND BE
RELEGATED MAINLY TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN.

SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LOOKING
LONG RANGE WITH EASTERLY FLOW PERPETUATING ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING
BEING PREDOMINANT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/NUM TSRA ONGOING IN SOFLA THIS AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FUTURE BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH THU TSRA HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM
CONVECTION...SE WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY USHERING IN AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  77  88 /  20  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  79  87 /  30  40  10  20
MIAMI            77  89  79  87 /  30  40  10  20
NAPLES           73  88  74  93 /  40  50  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
110145-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
936 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. FOR THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
BEACHES...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
AND PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 55
MPH.

HAIL: HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER URBAN AREAS.

VISIBILITY: PATCHY FOG MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT ALONG ALLIGATOR ALLEY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MUD LAKE FIRE COMPLEX IN COLLIER COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

KONARIK

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