Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
106 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA TIP. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
SITES...PRIMARILY KFXE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR AT KAPF AND KPBI OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AROUND 10Z-12Z AT THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST
COAST SITES. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL BEHIND
THE FRONT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015/

UPDATE...

THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH 500 HPA
TEMPERATURES DECREASING AND THE STABILITY INDICES DECREASING
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED. BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG GUSTS. CURRENTLY MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN THE EASTERN GULF TO THE WEST OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE EARLIER GUIDANCE INDICATED THE JET STREAM
DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH THE 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATING WINDS OVER 100 KNOTS ABOVE 200 MB AND WINDS
AROUND 60 KNOTS HAVE DESCENDED TO BELOW 500 MB.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY WITH REGIONAL WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WINDS IN THE 20
TO 25 KNOT RANGE ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL
REGIONAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONLY
ISOLATED AND THUS FAR MAINLY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN GULF.

FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MOST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS SO FAR BEEN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE JET STREAM WILL
PASS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 250 HPA WINDS REACHING IN EXCESS OF 100 KNOTS
AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITYAND
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DECREASING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE WINDS
INCREASING TO THE LOWER LEVELS OVER NIGHT. THEREFORE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE COULD BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.

GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATES THE FRONT CLEARING THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...INCREASING WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR ADVECTION DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
IN ADDITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING A SECONDARY DRY
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH
COLD AIR OF ARCTIC ORIGIN COMING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE AND WIND
CHILL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
AND THE WINDS WILL NOT LIKELY COMPLETELY DE-COUPLE OVER LAND OVER
NIGHT AS USUAL. THUS WIND CHILLS COULD BE NEAR 30 IN THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY NEAR THE MID 30'S IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE NAPLES AND ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...REGIONAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND COULD DROP TO NEAR 40 OR UPPER 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE NAPLES AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS. A FREEZE
WATCH MAY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR FOR EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERED DURING THE NIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT.

MARINE...

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT DISCUSSED AT LENGTH
ABOVE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
TO BE ISSUED FOR THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS STARTING AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.

FIRE WEATHER...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE ERC IN THE MID
20S. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...IF THE FORECAST TREND CONDITIONS IN LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL MORE LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  40  60  39 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  45  60  43 /  50   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  47  62  43 /  50   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  45  59  40 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

GM...NONE.
&&

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