Flood Watch 4, NWS Miami, FL

093 
WGUS62 KMFL 040135
FFAMFL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
835 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015

FLZ071>074-172>174-041200-
/O.CON.KMFL.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-151205T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
835 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... 
  COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE... 
  INLAND BROWARD...INLAND MIAMI DADE...METRO BROWARD AND METRO 
  MIAMI DADE. 

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
  ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
  TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS
  ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
  RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
  TOMORROW NIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER
  NORTH AND WEST AS HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF
  SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.

* HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS...URBAN
  AREAS...AND LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

175 
WGUS62 KMFL 040808
FFAMFL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2015

FLZ071>074-172>174-050000-
/O.CON.KMFL.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-151205T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
308 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
  BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
  ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
  AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
  IS POSSIBLE.

* HEAVY RAIN MAY CREATE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS...URBAN
  AREAS...AND LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$
GREGORIA

278 
WGUS62 KMFL 042308
FFAMFL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
608 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2015

FLZ071>074-172>174-050015-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-151205T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
608 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING HAS ENDED. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STEADY STREAM OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CUBA INTO THE KEYS, HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME HOLDING
TOGETHER INTO THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS NEAR TERM
MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR CONTINUE TO FORECAST THESE CLUSTERS
EVENTUALLY ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
HAS BEEN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON, SO SKEPTICAL OF THIS
ARRIVAL TIME. ABUNDANT CLOUDS HAVE ALSO PREVENTED ANY DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR. UNDER THIS REGIME, TYPICALLY
OFFSHORE HVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MUCH BETTER SUCCESS
CROSSING LAND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER,
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE
EAST COAST SEABREEZE POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT FOR WET WEATHER ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO. THIS
SEEMS TO BE OCCURRING IN BROWARD/FLL/FXE ATTM AND PARTS OF
INTERIOR MIAMI-DADE.

OVERALL, SOME CHANGES IN THE MODELS. STRONGER WINDS FORECASTED
BY THE MODELS TO AFFECT ALL OF THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC
WATERS, NOW ONLY MAKE IT TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. THIS MAY INDICATE
THAT THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WHICH LEADS TO LESS OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG EXTREME SOUTH FL. THUS THERE IS A
DEVELOPING TREND TOWARDS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS HEAVIEST QPF FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF HAS SHIFTED NORTH. REGARDLESSS, CAN'T PUT MUCH STOCK IN
RUN TO RUN VARIANCES, SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL FORCING
PROVIDED BY A FEW MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES AND MORE FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER JET, MAY BE THE EXTRA BOOST NEEDED TO
SPARK DEVELOPMENT. WIND FIELD REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING, ALSO LLVL HELICITY IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS.
WITH THE LACK OF ACTIVITY THUS FAR THIS PM, WILL HOLD OFF ON A
FLOOD WATCH AND CONTINUE TO ASSESS LATER THIS PM. WITH THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME HEAVIER RAIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHEREAS
THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE FL STRAITS AND KEYS, CLIPPING EXTREME SE
FL AROUND 6Z SAT. TOUGH TO ASCERTAIN HOW MUCH QPF FROM BOTH MODELS
ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. STRONGER MIDLEVEL SW
FLOW DOES SEEM TO END FRIDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD SEEM TO CUTOFF
THE TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
PWATS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. BY SATURDAY PM WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THROUGH H85 AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WAVERS OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MONDAY. INTO
MIDWEEK, A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
MAY FINALLY SHOVE THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH USHERING IN DRIER AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR/LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WHEREAS THE ECMWF LAGS, WITH A WETTER FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT THAN THE
ECMWF

&&

.MARINE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS INTO SATURDAY AM. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SMALL CRAFT ADV LEVEL WINDS MAY ONLY MAKE TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS MAY STAY AROUND
10 KTS FARTHER SOUTH. WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE GULF STREAM THOUGH
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 7 FT AND ABOVE, HIGHEST OFFSHORE PALM
BEACH COUNTY. A WEAK TO MODERATE SWELL WILL ROLL DOWN THE EAST
COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WAVES SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  78  74  80 /  90  90  60  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  78  69  79 /  90  80  70  70
MIAMI            71  80  71  81 /  80  80  70  70
NAPLES           67  77  68  82 / 100  80  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1014 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
040315-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1014 AM EST THU DEC 3 2015

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO.

WIND: WINDS MAY GUST TO 45 MPH WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOOD: VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A RISK OF WATERSPOUTS WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST, FRIDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

KONARIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
453 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015

FLZ072-074-173-032300-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
453 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
FOR SOUTHERN BROWARD AND NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 600
PM EST...

* AT 453 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER HIALEAH...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MIAMI...HIALEAH...PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR...MIAMI BEACH...
  SURFSIDE...MIAMI GARDENS...HALLANDALE...NORTH MIAMI...NORTH MIAMI
  BEACH...AVENTURA...MIAMI LAKES...HIALEAH GARDENS...SUNNY ISLES
  BEACH...OPA-LOCKA...WEST PARK...MIAMI SPRINGS...MIAMI SHORES...
  NORTH BAY VILLAGE AND EL PORTAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 2590 8012 2585 8012 2585 8018 2582 8018
      2578 8027 2585 8036 2601 8028 2597 8014
      2594 8014 2594 8012 2593 8012 2593 8013
      2590 8013 2591 8014 2589 8013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 222DEG 10KT 2586 8028

60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
533 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015

FLZ072-074-172-173-032315-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
533 PM EST THU DEC 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD AND
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EST...

* AT 533 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
  WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER NORTH
  MIAMI BEACH...OR NEAR HALLANDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
  THIS STORM. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
  FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER
  IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOLLYWOOD...MIRAMAR...MIAMI BEACH...SURFSIDE...HALLANDALE...MIAMI
  GARDENS...NORTH MIAMI...NORTH MIAMI BEACH...AVENTURA...DANIA
  BEACH...SUNNY ISLES BEACH...WEST PARK...MIAMI SHORES...RAVENSWOOD
  ESTATES...GOLDEN GLADES...FORT LAUDERDALE - HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL
  AIRPORT...OJUS...ESTATES OF FORT LAUDERDALE...PORT EVERGLADES AND
  SUN LIFE STADIUM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 2590 8012 2587 8012 2587 8014 2588 8014
      2589 8015 2586 8017 2586 8020 2595 8023
      2603 8021 2610 8012 2608 8011 2592 8012
      2593 8012 2593 8013 2591 8013 2590 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 246DEG 8KT 2594 8016

60