Wind Advisory 1, NWS Memphis, TN

503 
WWUS74 KMEG 072340
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
540 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015


ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-080045-
/O.CAN.KMEG.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150208T0000Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCAHONTAS...PIGGOTT...CORNING...
RECTOR...WALNUT RIDGE...HOXIE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...TRUMANN...
MARKED TREE...HARRISBURG...LEPANTO...BLYTHEVILLE...OSCEOLA...
WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...MARION...FORREST CITY...KENNETT...MALDEN
540 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA THUS THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED.

$$

KRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SO WILL NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT
THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES OVER
THE MID SOUTH TODAY UNDER CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN DROP TO BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH DRY FUELS AND
20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER
NOTIFICATION STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS CRITERIA
REMAINS BELOW RED FLAG LEVELS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS. THIS WILL NEED
CONTINUED MONITORING THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE WINDS ARE GREATER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

BY LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE MID SOUTH BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
PATCHY ADVECTION FOG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO BREAK OUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 5KFT SHOULD KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS FROM RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL...HENCE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN END TO ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND ALSO RESULTING IN A COOL
DOWN BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
THIS TIME. IN AN EFFORT TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S WILL REMOVE POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD FOR NOW. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A 1040+MB SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN
TEMPERATURES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 08/03Z.
THEREAFTER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS AT TAF SITES AND
PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS AT JBR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. DZ ALSO
POSSIBLE AT JBR AFTER 08/08Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-26 KTS.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-
     RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
403 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-081215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
403 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR WILD FIRE
DEVELOPMENT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER NOTIFICATION
STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JLH