Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AS OF 3 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS WHERE RAIN HASN/T OCCURRED JUST YET.

A WEAK SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL
FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND CONVECTION IS BEING PREDOMINANTLY DRIVEN
BY DAYTIME HEATING. CONSEQUENTLY...ANTICIPATING OVERALL COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TOWARDS SUNSET.

SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAKENING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. BEST FORCING/KINEMATICS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ANY CONVECTION BEING DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY
BY THERMODYNAMICS. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PASSAGE OF A FRONT LATE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

DEEP SOUTHERLY TROPICAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BEST SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR TUP. WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXPANSION OF SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL TROF.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-191045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
340 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

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